What to Make of Edwin Encarnacion

If you’ve watched almost any White Sox game this season, you don’t need me to tell you that Edwin Encarnacion has been struggling.

The 37-year old Encarnacion, who has hit at least 30 home runs over the past eight seasons, was the cherry on top of an offseason where money was finally spent.

Or so we thought.

Since coming to the White Sox, it seems like all Encarnacion has done is swing and miss at curveballs in the dirt, end innings with runners in scoring position, and swing and miss some more. He’s almost become a guaranteed out at this point.

The cherry has turned rotten.

So what should we think about Encarnacion’s struggles? Why is he doing so poorly? Is he a lost cause? Let’s take a closer look.

Early Season Struggles are Common for Encarnacion

Encarnacion is no stranger to slow starts. Here are some of his numbers through the first 20 games of every season since 2017:

While Encarnacion had a great start last season, these numbers suggest that his poor start to 2020 is fairly normal for him. Of course, a 60-game season doesn’t allow Encarnacion the time to settle in and produce his consistently solid numbers, so let’s take a look at the first 40 games of Encarnacion’s last three seasons. Assuming he keeps up the pace he is on, Encarnacion will play in approximately 40 games this season.

Based on the past three seasons, it appears the next 20 games will be more of the same for Encarnacion, with the potential for an increase in power. Of course, anything can happen in 2020, but don’t expect Encarnacion to have a dramatic turnaround in the second half of the season.

While it’s clear that Encarnacion isn’t a fast starter, this certainly isn’t the only explanation for his lack of production in the first half of 2020. Here are some other factors in his poor start at the plate:

Wheelhouse Has Become the Doghouse

Since 2017, Encarnacion has feasted on pitches that are right down the middle, as well as pitches that are low and away. Take a look at his wOBA in the different sections of the strike zone over the past three seasons:

For those of you unfamiliar with wOBA, it’s a statistic which combines every aspect of hitting, and gives fair weight to different types of hits. It doesn’t treat every hit the same (like BA and OBP), but also doesn’t assume a double is twice as more valuable as a single (like SLG). Because of its accuracy, wOBA is widely regarded to be one of the most helpful offensive statistics.

Much like OBP, a wOBA of .400 is considered to be excellent, .320 is average, and .290 is awful. Based on the chart above, Encarnacion was just short of excellent in four different zones: middle-in, middle-middle, low-middle, and low-away.

Now let’s look at Encarnacion’s wOBA for his first 21 games of this season:

Out of the four zones he was considered to be just short of excellent over the past three seasons, only one of those zones passes the threshold for excellent in 2020. Not only that, but the other three zones are incredibly low—far under the .290 mark that is considered poor.

While Encarnacion is still considered excellent in four different spots in the strike zone (thanks to the second game against the Pirates), only one spot is the same as his past three seasons.

Encarnacion’s inability to hit the pitches he usually does has certainly taken a toll on his 2020 campaign, but any optimists reading this should be able to point out something else about these charts: Encarnacion is mashing pitches in locations he usually doesn’t.

Low-in and middle-away pitches have produced great results for Encarnacion in 2020, and the one pitch he hit in the high-away zone was a 106.6 MPH home run. If he can continue to hit these pitches well and a find a way to hit the pitches he normally does, then the dramatic turnaround I mentioned earlier becomes much more likely.

Lack of Plate Discipline

Death, taxes, and Edwin Encarnacion swinging at sliders that are a foot off the plate.

Encarnacion’s lack of discipline at the plate has been extremely frustrating so far this season, and I have some visual proof to show you that it really has been as bad as it is in your head.

Here are Encarnacion’s different swing percentages on pitches in and around the strike zone:

Interestingly, Encarnacion has swung at low pitches in every zone far more often than league average, except for the low-in pitch, which he has taken 17 percent more often than the rest of the league. Given his unusual success on pitches in that zone this season, a little more patience on low pitches in other zones could lead to the production Encarnacion is to used to having.

For those of you wondering if Encarnacion has always swung and missed at everything off the plate, the answer is no. Last season, Encarnacion chased pitches out of the zone 25.2 percent of the time. This season, that rate has jumped to 30.3 percent.

To make matters worse, Encarnacion is making far less contact on pitches out of the zone than he usually does. In 2019, Encarnacion had a Chase Contact Percentage of 63.8, a little over four percent higher than league average. That 63.8 percent has dropped considerably to 48.2 percent in 2020.

Encarnacion isn’t getting away with swinging at bad pitches like he used to, and he’s paying for it. Similarly to the section above, if Encarnacion can lay off the pitches in the dirt and swing at strikes, his production will increase rapidly.

Great Contact Isn’t As Rare As You Might Think

Okay, I know what you’re thinking, and I’ll just admit it right off the bat. Yes, Encarnacion is in the bottom two percent of the league in exit velocity and bottom one percent in Expected Batting Average. And yes, he makes weak contact at double the rate of the rest of the league (6.3 percent of the time).

However, when he’s not hitting weak grounders to the left side, Encarnacion is destroying baseballs.

When Encarnacion makes contact, he barrels the ball 14.6 percent of the time. This number is over double league average, and places him in the top 80 percent of baseball.

If you’re confused with the term “barrel,” it’s not a literal barrel I’m referring to, but rather the perfect combination of exit velocity (98+ MPH) and launch angle (determined by the exit velocity). In short, Encarnacion is actually hitting the ball perfectly more often than most of the league.

I’m not trying to say Encarnacion has actually been hitting well this year. Based on his exit velocity, slash line, and a myriad of other statistics, he’s been terrible.

But what I am trying to suggest is that Encarnacion might not be a lost cause, at least not yet.

While he typically has slow starts to seasons, and he has been unable to hit the ball in places he usually does, Encarnacion has had a lot of success in places he normally struggles. Pair that new-found success with his high barrel rate and a more patient approach at the plate, and Encarnacion could be a more potent part of the White Sox offense moving forward.

Be sure to follow us on social media @SoxOn35th for more updates!

Featured Photo: White Sox/Twitter