We are over halfway through the 2020 MLB regular season, and the White Sox (19-12) sit half a game back of first place in their division with a 98.1% chance at making the playoffs. In roughly a two-week span, I went from thinking, “will the White Sox make the playoffs?” to, “can the White Sox secure a top-six seed in the playoffs?” to, “how deep of a run will the White Sox make in the playoffs?” In a normal season, this thought process would undoubtedly be an overreaction to a small sample. In a shortened season, it is perhaps necessary.
2020 Playoff Format
Now that the discourse has begun to shift from whether the White Sox will make the playoffs to how they might fare in the playoffs, let me first outline how the postseason works this year. Each league will have eight teams make the playoffs; the three division winners will get the top three seeds, followed by the three second-place finishers, followed by the two teams with the next best records. These clubs will then play a single best-of-three series at the ballpark of the team with the better record. The winners of each series will advance to the divisional round, where the playoffs will operate as they normally do.
White Sox Starters & Team Performance
The first test for the White Sox will of course be the preliminary three-game series. Obviously, Lucas Giolito and Dallas Keuchel would start the first two games. While it would not be ideal to face someone like Gerrit Cole in one of those games, most teams will not have as strong of a combination as Giolito and Keuchel. As of Thursday morning, the two pitchers rank #2 and #6, respectively, in Fangraphs’ wins above replacement (WAR) among American League pitchers.
Chances are that the third start would go to Dylan Cease. While Cease’s basic numbers have been impressive so far, he has struggled to keep the ball in the park and has not pitched deep into games. While Cease still has a very bright future, to request a solid start in the playoffs might be asking a bit much from the young hurler. Since the opening series would not last more than three games, Cease’s game (should it be necessary) will be of the utmost importance.
As far as the non-starting pitching aspects of the White Sox, there are not many reasons to worry. Sure, some offenses go cold in the playoffs every year, but there is no extra risk of that happening to the White Sox specifically. The team currently has the fifth-best record in baseball, and its position players are first in all of baseball in Fangraphs’ WAR and wRC+, the latter of which measures the quality of offense. The team ranks first in baseball in defensive runs saved (I told you the defense would be good!). The pitching staff (including the bullpen) slots in at third in the American League. Of course, WAR is not a perfect metric, but it is an easy way of conveying that the White Sox have, in all facets of the game, been one of the very best teams in baseball this year.
Keys to Playoff Success
Baseball playoffs were always random enough — a best-of-seven series is far too few games to adequately determine a better team without luck playing a significant role. Subjecting all teams to a best-of-three series makes these playoffs even more random. While a valid concern with the White Sox could involve the majority of the roster’s youth and lack of playoff experience, the sheer randomness of this year’s postseason could offset any slow starts or inexperience. In either case, the team would have to undergo a truly massive slump in order for all of the young, dynamic hitters to perform poorly at once.
Overall, the key to the White Sox playoff success this year is likely Dylan Cease. One can assume that Giolito and Keuchel will perform well enough to at least provide some quality innings, but the young and unproven Cease will face quite the test in a potential win-or-go-home game. Nevertheless, the idea of seeing players like Tim Anderson and Jose Abreu in actual playoff games is plenty exciting. But the White Sox have already, for the most part, taken care of that business, as implied by their 98.1% chance at making the postseason. The team could finish the rest of the season with an 8-21 mark and would still likely sneak into the postseason with the eighth seed. It is still very early in the team’s probable contention window, but the overall performance has indicated that the team is not just a fringe playoff squad, but a true contender. With a ridiculously powerful offense and a unique playoff system, the White Sox are as liable as any team to make a deep run.
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I agree that Dylan is the x-factor, if his ERA starts to hover towards his xERA (as we can expect without accuracy improvements and more effective non-slider off speed pitches) it’s going to be trying. So long as his health is in tact, I see no reason not to call up Dane Dunning and get him more experience/see if his first start is the norm or an outlier.
I’m curious to hear other people’s thoughts on making a trade. For me, our farm system is already under-developed, and in a year where more teams are competing for the crown I don’t think it makes a ton of sense.
Good post Nick, although its still midway through the season. I would settle for Dylans last start against the Cubs as a playoff example of a start. We still need to see if Lopez or Dunning have any value or a trade piece?