Week 5 Record: 4-1 | Overall Record: 19-13, First in AL Central
The White Sox’ offense had themselves a pretty nice week in their first five games without Luis Robert, scoring nine runs on three separate occasions while winning 80% of their games this week. However, the pitching staff was the main talking point for this week, and deservedly so, as we will walk through later. At the end of the week and heading into more AL Central clashes, the White Sox find themselves alone in first place in the AL Central with the third-best record in baseball.
Let’s recap this week and get ready for another exciting week to come!
Tale of the Tape
Game 28: White Sox 9, Reds 0 | Box Score | Recap
Game 29: White Sox 0, Reds 1 | Box Score | Recap
Game 30: White Sox 3, Royals 0 | Box Score | Recap
Game 31: White Sox 9, Royals 1 | Box Score | Recap
Game 32: White Sox 9, Royals 3 | Box Score | Recap
Jordan’s Weekly Wrap-Up Thoughts
This was a really good week for a ballclub that needed a really good week after receiving the Luis Robert news. The offense was completely dominant for most of the week, while the pitching staff was absurdly awesome one time through the order. It will be up to both sides to continue this string of dominance to make up for the losses of Robert and Eloy Jimenez, but just taking a look at the numbers shows they have the ability to do so:
- 4th in MLB in Batting Average (.255)
- 2nd in MLB in On-Base Percentage (.339)
- 6th in MLB in wOBA (.323)
- 5th in MLB in wRC+ (110)
The place where I’d like to see some improvement: 15th in MLB in Slugging Percentage (.391). Don’t get me wrong, I LOVE that the team is producing without needing the long ball. However, over the course of a season, you’re going to run into stretches where no one is hitting particularly well. That’s where getting some home runs here and there can really help a struggling offense pull out some wins. The White Sox are 28th in baseball in home runs with just 27 – that will need to see some improvement.
I want to spend most of this section talking about Yasmani Grandal, however. If you haven’t seen it, he’s hitting just .113 while being 2nd on the team with a .373 OBP. His recent stat line is absolutely wild, and it’s been a topic of conversation for most baseball fans:
There have been two crowds that Yasmani Grandal has created since he’s come to the South Side:
- The dude is awesome and his plate approach is fantastic
- The dude is awful and needs to swing the bat more
If you follow me on Twitter, I think it’s pretty clear where I lie on that spectrum.
However, allow me to propose an alternative solution: Yasmani Grandal is a really good ballplayer with an incredibly unique skill set. He’s not hitting as well as he can, and no one is saying he is. However, the underlying numbers are representative of a player who has better times ahead of him:
Here’s what I mean by the above. Look at the statistics with an “x” in front of them. That means “expected” based on launch angle and exit velocity. In other words, based on your quality of contact, how should you be performing? This attempts to remove luck from a given situation – if a player is struggling with low “expected” stats, he probably needs an approach change. If he’s struggling with high “expected” stats, he probably shouldn’t change his approach too much. In the case of Grandal, we see someone who, yes, needs to avoid hitting more ground balls, but overall has an approach at the plate that should lead to favorable outcomes over the course of 162 games.
When hitters are in slumps, typically they are almost guaranteed to be absolutely useless in the lineup. With Grandal, the White Sox have a hitter who – even when struggling – is finding ways to not get out. Think about it in that sense, and the value of Grandal’s walks becomes exponentially higher – it’s not just about getting on base, but not getting out. Grandal happens to be pretty good at that, even when he is struggling.
The most valuable commodity a baseball team owns is the 27 outs they’re given to start a game. Every time Grandal is not one of those outs, it was a productive at-bat. Now, it’s up to the team to have productive at-bats behind him and drive him in:
Without even realizing it, @heyyouwiththeface4 shows why so many people want Grandal hitting higher in the order – even as high as 2nd. Have him on base for the guys like Moncada and Abreu who get paid to drive in base runners. Putting Grandal is a more optimal spot in the lineup only increases the value of his walks.
Bottom line, I think Yasmani’s chart above perfectly encapsulates where he’s at: he needs to hit the ball in the air more and avoid hitting the ball on the ground (low xBA, low xSLG). However, based on his overall quality of contact, there’s still plenty of improvement on the horizon (high xwOBA).
Let’s talk about the $18M/year contract though, since a lot of people seem to focus on that. Not all $18M contracts are made the same – just because Jose Abreu and Yasmani Grandal make the same amount of money does not mean that they make it for the same reasons. Jose Abreu makes $18M to drive in runs in the middle of the Sox’ order. As for Grandal, well, I’ll let Grandal himself explain it, courtesy of James Fegan’s latest article:
“I’m done swinging at pitches that they want me to swing at. If you make a mistake, I want to crush you. If you don’t, then I’m going to walk.”
– Yasmani Grandal on his early season results
Yasmani Grandal is paid $18M to have competitive at-bats from the left side of the plate to help balance out a right-handed heavy White Sox lineup that has historically been hesitant to take their walks. He is a perfect balance for this lineup offensively. He’s also paid $18M to be one of the best framing catchers in baseball – and, according to BaseballSavant’s framing tools, he’s currently performing well-above-average there as well (not the best, sure, but it’s still early). If you thought the White Sox were paying him to drive in a ton of runs, well, you both misunderstood Grandal and the contract he was given. Adjust your expectations to the player makeup, not the contract value.
I’m not saying he’s been awesome – and I don’t think anyone who like Grandal is actually saying that either. But, he has been valuable, and even if you hate him, you can’t deny that.
As for the “We should’ve kept James McCann” crowd, I addressed that too – see the poll below:
Perhaps more of you wanted Yasmani Grandal over James McCann than you thought you did.
Stats on 35th: This Week by the Numbers
This Week’s Numbers:
2.66, +53, 0.31, 14, 0.267
2.66
The White Sox’ rotation currently has a 2.66 ERA – which leads the majors in this category. The next closest teams are the New York Mets and Los Angeles Dodgers with a 2.97 ERA. This run of dominance by White Sox starting pitchers has seen them give up just one run over the course of one turn through the rotation, which is incredible no matter who you’re playing against.
+53
Sticking right along with the theme of a really good baseball team, the White Sox currently hold the league’s best run differential at +53 – almost 20 runs higher than the next closest team. Run differential is usually a decent indicator of where teams tend to fall in the standings throughout the year, so it’s good to see the White Sox currently at the top of the list.
0.31
Courtesy of Chris Kamka, this is a great stat about the White Sox’ most recent turn through the rotation. If you missed anything, they were historically good the last time through.
14
Yasmani Grandal has walked 14 times in the last five games. As a comparison point, Ozzie Guillen walked 14 times in all of 1994.
I know not everyone is into OBP and really wants hits. I get it. But Yasmani Grandal walking as much as he is right now is a sign that he’s seeing the ball incredibly well. It’s only a matter of time until the hits come – so long as pitchers come into the zone.
0.267
The White Sox currently are hitting .267 with RISP, which is 3rd in the American League, and 4th in MLB. Nice to see after some rough situational hitting to start the year.
Fan Question of the Week
This question came in response to a 4-1 week immediately following the news that Luis Robert might be out for the season. In an attempt to keep the positive vibes rolling, I asked: “Based on this week of games, what has you optimistic about the Sox’ ability to weather the losses of Robert/Jimenez?“
The pitching staff is the obvious answer for me – if the White Sox have five strong starters, it eases the strain on the bullpen and allows guys to begin to settle in (like Aaron Bummer, who has now thrown six straight scoreless outings). Jose Ruiz has been surprisingly solid as well and could look to get higher leverage opportunities somewhere down the line if he continues to perform. With Jimenez out for most of the season, the focus – as I’ve mentioned before – clearly shifted from run-scoring to run prevention for the White Sox. Losing Robert didn’t change that strategy; if anything, it made it the all-the-more-obvious strategy. Guys like Danny Mendick, Yermin Mercedes, and even Brian Goodwin are going to need to step up and do their job. That being said, the arms already know how much weight they hold in this season. So far, so good.
But, hey, the offense scoring nine runs on three separate occasions this week has me pretty optimistic too.
Let’s get to your responses though – thanks to everyone who sent them in!
1) @sean_janko: Great minds think alike. They’re historically good right now, and even though that’s unsustainable, the stuff is clearly there to be dominant throughout the season despite some blips here and there. This rotation should be an optimistic point for everyone for sure – and not just because of the results.
2) @MaxIsPosi: I think the Buxton injury is a horrible bad break for the Twins. With the Sox and Twins facing off as two depleted teams, this will be a good temperature check on both teams’ current and future status in the divisional race.
3) @buskee: Mendick’s ability to play the OF probably extends his MLB career. He can hit a little bit and play both IF and OF at a competitive level. This sort of versatility is incredibly valuable. I will be interested to see how long Jake Lamb remains on this roster. He is good depth, and if you DFA Lamb, you likely lose the depth. However, with Mendick, he can continue to move up and down this year due to options. Time will tell, but Mendick is an incredibly valuable asset to this team, and I’m glad to see it.
4) @gvpryszcz: Vaughn looks really, really good at the plate right now. The power is starting to come, even though he hasn’t left the ballpark yet. He continues to impress me with every at-bat… Players are not usually able to succeed with as little minor league experience as he has.
5) @AMKumle24: Pretty good summary here if you ask me, haha. What a great asset Mercedes has been.
Top Highlights of the Week
1) Dylan Cease Strikes out 11 Batters while going 3-for-3
2) The Sox Score 8 runs on 9 Hits in the First Inning of a 9-1 Blowout
3) Carlos Rodon lowers his ERA to 0.58 with another Scoreless Outing
4) Dallas Keuchel shuts down a potent Reds’ Offense over Seven Innings
5) Zack Collins breaks up Keller’s no-no with a homer to CF in a 3-0 Sox Win
The Week Ahead: A Big Test with Minnesota
After passing their first test this month against Kansas City with flying colors, the White Sox will look to continue to put distance between themselves and a depleted Minnesota team to start the week. They’ll then take on the Royals for four more games in a week that gives the White Sox a lot of opportunities to bury their AL Central opponents early in the year.
Monday: OFF DAY
Tuesday: Dylan Cease vs. Kenta Maeda, 7:10 PM CT
Wednesday: Dallas Keuchel vs. J.A. Happ, 7:10 PM CT
Thursday: Carlos Rodon vs. Michael Pineda, 1:10 PM CT
Friday – Sunday: Series vs. Royals… Lance Lynn, Lucas Giolito, Dylan Cease, and Dallas Keuchel are the projected starters
See you back here next week, White Sox fans. Let’s go grab a couple series from a couple of big rivals!