Believe it or not, the White Sox have played over 31% of the 2020 regular season. While sample sizes are still very small, more fans have been invested in individual players’ performances this year since the priority has mostly shifted from development to winning games. It is undoubtedly far too early to make any grand proclamations about players, but I dove into some Statcast data to determine whether luck has significantly affected certain hitters.
Eloy Jimenez
Eloy Jimenez has certainly had a newsworthy year. Between his defensive snafus and opposite-field home runs, I have seen fans concerned that his impressive exit velocities and barrel rates are coming with launch angles too low to matter, thus capping his offensive potential and making his current 114 wRC+ a fair predictor of the rest of his season.
Launch angle concerns are valid, and it would be great if Jimenez could increase his 2.6 degree average launch angle so that it is closer to or greater than his 2019 figure of 9.3 degrees. Yet, even with a lower launch angle, Jimenez has a .380 xwOBA (expected weighted on-base average), which is a sizable increase from last year, when it was .354. Despite the .380 xwOBA, Jimenez’s actual wOBA is only .300, which implies that his early season plate appearances have somewhat often ended with bad luck. In other words, Jimenez is hitting the ball with authority, but bad luck, timely defensive shifts, and the overall effects of a small sample are keeping his numbers down.
To further evaluate Jimenez, one can look at the classic BABIP (batting average on balls in play) stat compared to his xBABIP, which is an expected batting average on balls in play derived from Baseball Savant’s xBA metric. Although the 2020 league average BABIP is .280, Jimenez’s is .238, in spite of objectively high-quality contact. The more shocking aspect is that Jimenez’s xBABIP is .356. This means that there is a .118 difference between Jimenez’s BABIP and xBABIP, implying that his luck has been laughably unfavorable so far. Thus, it would be great if he could increase his launch angle, but there is clearly more to his underwhelming (but above-average) numbers than that. Thankfully, we are already starting to see the law of averages play out.
Yoan Moncada
Yoan Moncada has clearly been playing through some injuries lately. His swing does not look as effective as it did last season, and he also did not have much ramp-up time before the season due to his time on the injured list in July. Yet, he is still hitting a very solid .278/.342/.458 with a 127 wRC+.
Last season, Statcast largely validated Moncada’s breakout campaign, even if a lazy analysis of his BABIP suggests it was a fluke. Moncada had a .362 xwOBA and .380 wOBA, which does feature a slight difference, but not one major enough to imply that the season was significantly lucky. Moreover, his .406 BABIP raised eyebrows, but Moncada also carried a .375 xBABIP. Once again, there was a difference between the expected and actual numbers, but the expected figure was still exceedingly high. In fact, Moncada’s 2019 .375 xBABIP was the second highest in baseball among qualified hitters.
Why do his numbers last year matter now? For starters, I wanted to point out that the injuries and swing issues he is dealing with are important context for his 2020 xwOBA currently being down at .313. Regardless, he will likely get closer to his 2019 figures once he is healthy. But, the differences in the 2019 numbers are important because they partially mirror what has occurred so far in 2020. There are many reasons why a player might consistently outperform expected metrics, but for Moncada, one reason is hits like these.
The above single was only hit at 83.5 MPH with a negative launch angle. As it was cued to where the third baseman normally is positioned, its xBA was just .140. Yet, this was simply a smart play by Moncada, and it is one he has made somewhat often in his White Sox career. While some hitters bunt against extreme lefty shifts, Moncada is skilled at grounding singles to the largely-vacated left side of the infield. These singles almost always have low xBAs, but they obviously raise Moncada’s traditional stats. Thus, hits like these can explain some of the constant disparity between Moncada’s already impressive expected stats and his actual numbers.
With respect to Moncada’s 2020 production, I do not think anybody should be concerned. He is already hitting quite well despite his injuries, and chances are he will continue to be a force in the White Sox lineup as he regains his health. Incidentally, his Statcast numbers should also trend positively.
Jose Abreu
Jose Abreu’s problem is similar to that of Eloy Jimenez, but to a greater degree. He hits the ball quite hard, but is suffering from a career-worst 8.3 degree launch angle. Consequently, Abreu carries a pedestrian .333 xwOBA.
Unlike Jimenez, Abreu does not appear to be a victim of significant bad luck. His wOBA is only 13 points lower than his xwOBA, and his .328 xBABIP is higher than his .321 true BABIP. As a result, Abreu needs to focus on adding loft to his hard-hit balls, especially with runners in scoring position (since he tends to bat in such situations).
Many White Sox fans have been clamoring for Abreu to be bumped down to the fifth or sixth spot in the lineup so that greater on-base threats can bat third or fourth. While they might be right, Abreu’s track record of success is at least worth mentioning. He may not return to his prime production levels, but it is reasonable to expect him to deliver more consistently with runners in scoring position as the season goes on. In the meantime, avoiding ground balls should be a priority so that we can see the following result more often.
Yasmani Grandal
I have already seen Yasmani Grandal’s name thrown in with some of the worst free agent signings in White Sox history. Not only is such discussion premature, but it also ignores that Grandal has not been bad at the plate. While he should absolutely strive for better than a 95 wRC+, his 15.4% walk rate has been a breath of fresh air in the middle of the order.
Some of the more reasonable criticism of Grandal has revolved around his 33.8% strikeout rate and .394 BABIP. I am not worried about him for two reasons. First, the strikeout rate has been coming down steadily for about a week now, and, as we all saw in a crucial moment on Sunday night, a few of his strikeouts looking have been on pitches that can be described as borderline at best. With such a small sample, the three or four strikeouts being referenced can decrease that rate substantially.
More importantly, while Grandal will likely not sustain a .394 BABIP, his performance at the plate has not been due to luck. In fact, Grandal’s xBABIP is a dazzling .388. Much like Jimenez and Abreu, his launch angle is down. As a result, he is not hitting for much power. Given his veteran status and track record, however, one might assume that his power will return shortly.
The theme for Grandal is similar to that for the other players mentioned above. He needs to (continue to) strike out less frequently and hit the ball in the air more, but his roughly average performance to date has not been a result of luck.
Other Observations
There are some other notable players I did not discuss, either because there is less to say or because the sample sizes are even smaller. For example, Tim Anderson has looked fantastic at the plate. He might have found some more power, and he had an xBABIP of over .400 prior to Wednesday’s four-hit game in Detroit.
Nomar Mazara is not yet hitting for power, but I have been really impressed by his plate discipline. It is very early, but his 17.4% walk rate is almost three times as high as his career rate with Texas.
As a whole, I think the White Sox offense has been fairly solid. Of course, the lack of execution with runners in scoring position has been frustrating, but the team might have turned a corner this week. If the hitters can stay healthy and start getting more loft on the ball, the offense should stay among the league’s top ten.
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Featured Photo: White Sox/Twitter
Better plate discipline by the big name hitters will solve the problem almost entirely, imo. They are constantly swinging at and striking out on pitches nowhere near the strike zone. The Cleveland pitchers, in particular, threw very few few strikes, as they knew the Sox batters were suckers for sliders/curves out of the strike zone that no one could get a bat on, let alone get a hit. Where is the hitting coach on this one and the players abilities to make adjustments and understand what the pitchers are trying to do to them?????????