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Nik Gaur

I am an undergraduate student at the University of Chicago majoring in economics and minoring in history. I am a lifelong White Sox fan from the western suburbs. I enjoy monitoring the minor league system, evaluating new metrics, and writing about the development of the team's core pieces. The White Sox are about to get really good, and I am excited to continue to provide content on what is becoming such an entertaining team!

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What can life without baseball teach us about ourselves?

by Nik Gaur
written by Nik Gaur

Lamenting the temporary loss of various sports leagues and forms of entertainment may, to some, feel inconsiderate given the severity of the situation we currently find ourselves in. After all, when hundreds of thousands are falling ill and thousands are dying due to a pandemic, the temporary loss of a sports league is relatively unimportant.

However, that does not make one selfish or a bad person for being upset over such a loss. For many of us, myself included, sports (baseball in particular) are not simply a hobby. Whether or not we consciously realized this before, the upheaval of our everyday lives is revealing that sports have doubled as an escape. Several fellow baseball fans that I have been talking to recently are echoing a similar sentiment. The past few weeks have been stressful and chaotic, and spending three hours each day watching a baseball game would be the perfect way to unwind and feel normal.

The truth, however, is that baseball operated in this way for many of us even before this pandemic. The stress of everyday life was temporarily forgotten whenever a game was on. This is something that I have always generally known, but not consciously considered each time I watched a game.

Thus, how can we cope with losing baseball when baseball itself is an ideal coping mechanism? It is certainly not easy. I am sure that everyone is dealing with such a quandary at the moment, whether it pertains to baseball in a literal sense or another soothing ritual or activity that has suddenly been taken away.

And if I may get a little more specific for a minute, it’s almost like a double gut punch for White Sox fans. Not only did we lose baseball like everyone else, but the collective excitement from fans for the upcoming season was palpable and unrivaled over the past decade. The 2020 team was finally expected to be a winner stacked with young, talented, and likable players. On the bright side, we should still get some form of a 2020 season, with a substantial increase in the odds of a playoff berth (both due to the decrease in total games and the rumored expansion in playoff teams). However, it undoubtedly will not be what fans had in mind.

In the meantime, there is no simple solution to our shared problem. We can channel our energy into hobbies/distractions that are readily available, but this is understandably inadequate. Rather than sufficiently working as a distraction, many of these activities have only made me miss baseball even more. So, at the very least, I hope that when baseball and other activities that are on hiatus return, we can all welcome them with a greater appreciation for what they truly mean to us. Whether baseball is your escape, a way of meeting new people, a symbol of summer, a benchmark for life events and milestones, just a game, or (more likely) some combination of many factors, we can at least take solace in knowing that it will be back.

Be sure to follow us on social media @SoxOn35th for more updates!

Featured Photo: White Sox/Twitter

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A Yoan Moncada contract extension could be the best White Sox move yet

by Nik Gaur
written by Nik Gaur

Rumors have started to swirl about the Chicago White Sox potentially working on a contract extension with Yoan Moncada. If and when the extension occurs, Moncada would likely become the highest paid player in franchise history.

Naturally, such a deal will draw scrutiny. As many of you know, I am without a doubt a proponent of further incorporation of advanced analytics in baseball. Yet, at least on social media, there seems to be a toxicity present in analytics-based conversations wherein statistics and critical thinking become separated, creating a mass over-reliance on the former, especially a single statistic. Those familiar with the nuances of Moncada’s spectacular 2019 season probably know what I am referring to.

In 2019, Yoan Moncada had the highest batting average on balls in play (BABIP) among qualified hitters in the past 42 years (.406). Obviously, such a figure is unsustainable. I am not arguing that Moncada will sport a BABIP in the .400+ range. However, to write off Moncada’s 2019 as a one season blip is completely irresponsible. I hinted in the previous paragraph that advanced statistics and critical thinking must be used concurrently, and this is precisely what I meant. There are reasons Moncada produced such a high BABIP, and while luck was certainly one of them, it was not acting in isolation.

Nobody seems to question whether Aaron Judge’s offensive output is flukey. Judge has a career .357 BABIP because he, like Moncada, crushes the ball to all fields and is fast. Granted, Judge does have more of a track record of success and high BABIPs than Moncada, but the gap is not as wide as one may think. Judge has amassed his .357 career BABIP in 1,718 plate appearances. Moncada has compiled a .367 career BABIP in 1,460 plate appearances. A 258 plate appearance difference is significant, but one would think that the gap was closer to 1,000 plate appearances based on how quick many baseball fans are to point out that Moncada’s track record of high BABIPs is lackluster.

Furthermore, a reduction to Moncada’s BABIP would not be a death sentence. He would remain a home run threat, and he could always mix his 2018 and 2019 plate approaches in order to increase his walk rate. If he decides to keep his aggressive 2019 approach, that would be fine too. Baseball Savant’s xBA is an estimate of what a player’s batting average should be based on his exit velocity, launch angle, ball placement, strikeout rate, and many other factors. One can derive xBABIP, or expected batting average on balls in play, from this calculation. According to Baseball Savant, Moncada’s xBABIP was .383 in 2019. He may have been lucky last season, but a .383 xBABIP speaks to the fact that his actual BABIP (assuming his contact profile remains relatively stable) will not suddenly enter a downward spiral towards the league average of about .300. All this is to say that Yoan Moncada’s offensive profile is far from a concern.

Twitter: @WhiteSox

Generally, the White Sox fanbase is relentlessly critical of the team’s roster moves. From recent memory, the signing of Yasmani Grandal was the only acquisition that was widely praised by the fanbase, and even it drew a small amount of criticism since some did not consider a catcher to be a need. Thus, I believe it is meaningful that the prospect of a Yoan Moncada contract extension has unified the fanbase and drawn next to zero notable complaints. The shrewd and attentive fans that tend to poke holes in the team’s decisions understand that a Moncada extension would be an overwhelming positive.

I have not yet mentioned Moncada’s defense at third base, as it is almost universally well-regarded. Defensive runs saved, a popular Fielding Bible defensive metric, was disproportionately critical of his 2019 defense, perhaps due to early-season throwing errors that occurred as he acclimated to his new position. However, most other statistics such as ultimate zone rating, outs above average, and defensive runs above average all were very high on Moncada’s defense. As the season progressed, his range and plus arm proved to be terrific traits. There is no reason to think that his defense will become a problem over the coming years.

Of course, there is risk in such an extension, as there is always risk when a player is to be paid somewhere between $100-$200 million. Legitimate concerns, such as Moncada’s injury history, can and should be raised. However, Moncada projects to be a two-way stud for the foreseeable future, so ensuring that he is around for the long haul would, in my opinion, be worthwhile.

Moreover, I do not think that the exact money offered for what would be Moncada’s post-arbitration years will be of major long-term consequence. Some proposed deals involve Moncada’s free agency years being valued around $30 million. Such a figure seems imposing now (and it still might be from 2024 onward), but inflation and the progression of baseball’s free agency market will make it less of a burden in the future. Paying Moncada around $30 million per year for a few years beginning in 2024 would certainly be substantial, but it is also likely to be less than the rate which comparable players sign for at the time.

In signing Yoan Moncada to a contract extension, the White Sox window of contention would become even more elongated. If he stays healthy, Moncada figures to be a plus player on both offense and defense for many years, and he still has the potential to get even better by further tapping into his power and increasing his walk rate. A nine-figure commitment from the White Sox would entail some risk, especially with respect to potential injuries. A healthy Moncada, however, for as often as his high ceiling is invoked, also has a very high floor. Should he and the White Sox agree to a contract extension in the near future, the organization would be making a bold statement and submitting a vote of confidence in their rising star.

Be sure to follow us on social media @SoxOn35th for more updates!

Featured Photo: @FotoGenocide_/Twitter

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Could a Yoan Moncada contract extension be on the horizon?

by Nik Gaur
written by Nik Gaur

With Spring Training upon us, contract extensions are a natural discussion point. The White Sox have a solid history of reaching extensions in February and March. Eloy Jimenez, Tim Anderson, Chris Sale, Jose Quintana, and Adam Eaton are some recent examples. Will Yoan Moncada be next?

Just yesterday, it was announced that Moncada switched his representation from David Hastings to Movement Management. Movement Management does not represent many high-profile baseball players, but they do represent Norge Vera, the Cuban right-handed pitcher who the White Sox are reportedly signing when the new international signing period opens this July.

The timing of this announcement ⁠— just days after news of the Vera signing leaked ⁠— is interesting in itself. One might wonder if Moncada changed agents in hopes of the new group reaching an extension with the White Sox and taking a smaller commission than the former agent. Moncada would almost certainly make nine figures on the open market following the 2023 season, but he has previously expressed his affection for Chicago and the White Sox organization. With countreymen Luis Robert signed long-term and Jose Abreu rewarded for his stellar career with a three-year deal, perhaps Moncada is amenable to a new deal of his own.

There are obviously many factors that go into contract extensions, but if Moncada himself is interested in one, chances are that Rick Hahn and the White Sox will make it happen in the near future. Moncada’s arbitration years would need to be bought out, and the White Sox would likely tack on a few extra years at a larger sum to increase his team control. Alex Bregman’s five-year, $100 million extension with the Astros may serve as a comparison. A potential extension with Moncada will be an interesting story to follow before the season begins.

Be sure to follow us on social media @SoxOn35th for more updates!

Featured Photo: Chicago White Sox @WhiteSox/Twitter

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How the 2020 White Sox could steamroll projections

by Nik Gaur
written by Nik Gaur

Football season is behind us, and we are one step closer to the return of the Chicago White Sox – both literally, and in the sense that the last time the White Sox had such a well-rounded and talented roster on paper, Luis Robert was not yet a teenager. Most respected algorithms seem to have the 2020 White Sox win total in the mid-80s. Such an outlook may be fair, but it is important to note that the team has a relatively high variance due to its abundance of young talent. In other words, there are many scenarios in which the White Sox could substantially differ from these preseason projections.

Projection systems struggle with young players. Rookies, for example, are safe bets to have minimal contribution. Yet, players such as Luis Robert may be exceptions. Furthermore, young players with one standout season following a mediocre year or two, such as Yoan Moncada, are perhaps equally unpredictable, since algorithms are wary of placing too much weight on the most recent season. Thus, these systems often understandably take conservative approaches to forecasting the performance of young players.

Why are the White Sox in particular such an interesting case? Most notably, their 2020 roster is overflowing with young talent. There is a nonzero chance that several of these players significantly outperform their projections, and this would seismically alter the expectations for the team’s overall performance.

@WhiteSox/Twitter

For example, let’s pretend that one of Gio Gonzalez or Dallas Keuchel has an uncharacteristically disappointing 2020 season. While this would not be ideal, the team’s young, high-ceiling starting depth would act as an unofficial safeguard. Any of Dylan Cease, Michael Kopech, or Reynaldo Lopez, for instance, could feasibly perform near his ceiling sooner than predicted and reach the ace-like status that Lucas Giolito attained in 2019. A 4-6 WAR season from one of these arms would do wonders in counteracting a down year from a veteran. While it is unrealistic to expect such an output from any of those three starters, their high ceilings at least make it a distinct possibility. Hence, there is a heightened level of variance that needs to be considered with the starting rotation.

The same is true of position players. Perhaps Nomar Mazara does not take the step forward that many are anticipating, or Nick Madrigal takes longer to adjust to MLB pitching than expected. The White Sox are again safeguarded by high-ceiling talent such as Eloy Jimenez, Luis Robert, and Yoan Moncada, who is so naturally gifted that he may be capable of taking yet another step forward in 2020. Jimenez was a force to be reckoned with when healthy last year, and Robert figures to have an immediate impact on defense and the basepaths alone. Can you imagine how dangerous he could be if he taps into his power early like Jimenez did last year? Such a development would surely compensate for unexpected poor performance from another position. Moreover, it would not be a surprise if Mazara or Madrigal themselves are the ones who have unexpectedly great years. Such is the beauty of a young and talented roster: even the hypothetical cautionary examples can be viewed through an optimistic lens.

While the White Sox are not the only team with young talent, they are the only team that will provide regular playing time to approximately a dozen high-ceiling players yet to enter their primes. Some may fall short of expectations, but others can surpass them with ease, much like Yoan Moncada, Tim Anderson, and Lucas Giolito did last year. Thus, even if a mid-80s win output is considered the average by most projections, the team’s variance likely gives it a statistically significant chance at transcending that total. If several of the players discussed play towards their ceilings in 2020, the team will not only be competitive, but will become the team to beat in its division.

Be sure to follow us on social media @SoxOn35th for more updates!

Featured Photo: Chris Tejeda @FotoGenocide_/Twitter

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BREAKING: White Sox, Luis Robert reportedly agree to contract extension

by Nik Gaur
written by Nik Gaur

According to multiple reports, the White Sox have signed Luis Robert to a six-year contract extension, with the potential to be an eight-year extension if team options are exercised. James Fox of FutureSox was the first to report the negotiations. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale was first to report the agreement. ESPN’s Jeff Passan provided more terms, saying the deal is worth $50 million.

As I have written about in detail, Luis Robert is a very good bet to be an above-average center fielder and has a superstar ceiling. For as good as Yoan Moncada was last year, Robert has the potential to be the best player on the White Sox. In his age 21 season, Robert hit .328/.376/.624 with 32 home runs and 36 stolen bases across three levels in the minors and provided outstanding defense in center field.

With the reported contract extension, Robert figures to be manning center field when the White Sox open their season on March 26th against the Kansas City Royals. In what should be a competitive season, having the best possible option in center field from day one will undoubtedly be a positive for the White Sox.

Be sure to follow us on social media @SoxOn35th for more updates!

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Why the 2020 White Sox should be a good defensive team

by Nik Gaur
written by Nik Gaur

While we are still over a month from the beginning of Spring Training, the starting position players for the Chicago White Sox already seem to be set. With the team grabbing headlines due to their recent signings, vocal dissenters – often from opposing fanbases – have chimed in with thoughts on the 2020 team’s defensive potential. Simply put, there seems to be a growing narrative that the White Sox will be held back by their defense in 2020. I do not believe this will be the case.

As things stand, the White Sox figure to have 4 plus defenders, 2 neutral or unpredictable defenders, and 2 negative value defensive players in their regular lineup. Those negative value defenders happen to play at the two least important defensive positions in the modern game (first base and left field). White Sox fans should not have a hard time guessing: these two players are Jose Abreu and Eloy Jimenez. Advanced metrics have never held Abreu’s defense at first base in high regard, but many fans seem to be unaware that most defensive metrics are unable to measure the aptitude of first basemen when they pick throws out of the dirt from infielders. This is a skill in which Abreu has never been noticeably deficient, and the aspects of first base defense that are measured by modern metrics are insignificant when compared to other positions. While defense in left field is easier to measure, it too happens to be one of the least important positions on a relative basis. Eloy Jimenez was undeniably poor as a fielder in 2019, but unlike Abreu, Jimenez is young and athletic enough to improve defensively. He flashed defensive competence over small samples in 2019, especially during the latter half of the season.

The neutral or unpredictable defenders I mentioned in the prior paragraph are Nomar Mazara (neutral) and Tim Anderson (unpredictable). Mazara is a prototypical corner outfielder in that his mobility and range are subpar, but he has a cannon for an arm and makes the easy plays. Cumulatively, he figures to be neither a liability nor a strength in right field. Anderson, on the other hand, seems to alternate between good and bad defense at shortstop every season: he was solid defensively in 2016 and 2018, but lackluster in 2017 and 2019. Unlike first base and left field, shortstop is a very important defensive position – perhaps the most important defensive position – so getting the 2016/2018 version of Anderson in 2020 will be key. One cannot say with certainty what Anderson will provide defensively next season, even if his ceiling is still enormously high. Yet, even if his defense does not suffice, it is foolish to assume that the White Sox would be a poor defensive team overall.

The remaining defenders that I have not mentioned all project to be above-average at their positions. Yasmani Grandal, Nick Madrigal, Luis Robert, and Yoan Moncada should all provide solid defense for the 2020 White Sox. Grandal was acquired in large part for his elite defense at a premium position. Madrigal’s defense at second base may be his most valuable asset throughout a rookie season in which he (like all rookies) will need to adjust to MLB pitching. Robert’s off-the-charts speed and rocket arm in center field make him a good bet to be an immediate plus defender, and he may also help the rest of the outfield due to his impressive range. Finally, Moncada was one of the best defensive third basemen in baseball in 2019. He had some issues with throwing errors early on, which led to some odd discrepancies between various metrics’ evaluations of his season. These errors, however, can be explained by the fact that he was new to the position. Once they were ironed out, he was truly automatic.

The 2020 Chicago White Sox may not be an elite defensive team, but they have the potential to be very good. It is difficult for me to envision a scenario in which they are truly bad, as many seem to be suggesting lately. While I have confidence that Anderson’s defense will improve at shortstop, it is possible that it does not; yet, even in this event, the projected positive contributions from Moncada, Grandal, Robert, and Madrigal at four of the five most important defensive positions are far more meaningful than potential struggles from Abreu, Jimenez, and Anderson. Thus, barring major injuries or inexplicable regression from prime players, I believe the 2020 White Sox will be no worse than an average defensive team. Accordingly, the influx of new position players is arguably just as important to the team’s defense as it is to its offense.

Be sure to follow us on social media @SoxOn35th for more White Sox content!

Featured Photo: FotoGenocide_/Twitter

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How should the White Sox order their suddenly dangerous lineup?

by Nik Gaur
written by Nik Gaur

Now that the White Sox have reportedly agreed to terms with Edwin Encarnacion, they have what is arguably their deepest lineup since the years of Konerko, Thome, and Dye – if not earlier. Finally, discussion topics are beginning to change from whether the White Sox will acquire talent to how the White Sox will manage their talent. The 2020 batting order will naturally be a major conversation topic throughout the offseason, as the team’s newfound depth, which I wrote about a few days ago, is a pretty big deal:

How will Ricky Renteria choose to order these players? For the purposes of this exercise, let’s assume that Luis Robert and Nick Madrigal are on the MLB roster, as they figure to be for the majority of the 2020 season. Also, these lineups will suppose a right-handed starter is on the mound for the opponent, both because this will be the norm, and because I believe that the platoon complement to Nomar Mazara may not be on the roster yet.

The wild cards in these discussions are Robert and Madrigal. As rookies, we cannot know how quickly they will adjust to MLB pitching. While both have long-term top of the order potential, I believe that Robert is more likely to have an immediate impact, mostly because his theoretical struggles can be counteracted by his propensity to hit home runs. I believe Robert can play a Ronald Acuña sort of role as a leadoff hitter, both in 2020 and beyond. Thus, for the time being, it would make more sense to keep Madrigal lower in the order.

Another factor to consider is the organization’s commitment to Jose Abreu. While circumstances may change with a more dangerous lineup, it seems as though Ricky Renteria will keep Abreu in the #3 slot in perpetuity. I will now present the lineup I predict Renteria will often use, and later will share what I would prefer he employ. As for what I foresee him using:

  1. Luis Robert (R)
  2. Yoan Moncada (S)
  3. Jose Abreu (R)
  4. Yasmani Grandal (S)
  5. Eloy Jimenez (R)
  6. Edwin Encarnacion (R)
  7. Tim Anderson (R)
  8. Nomar Mazara (L)
  9. Nick Madrigal (R)

The above lineup presents a sufficient division with respect to handedness, features plenty of power in succession, and is refreshingly loaded with potential high on-base percentage threats. The beauty of this exercise is the realization that there are very few 2020 lineup configurations which would be considered inadequate. With this much talent, batting Tim Anderson in the #7 spot, for instance, is no longer a ridiculous choice.

While the above lineup, or something fairly similar to it, seems realistic to me, I would not mind seeing the White Sox adopt an even more analytical approach in 2020. I do not expect this, as it defies conventional norms, but the main move I seek is for Yasmani Grandal to be the leadoff hitter.

Grandal is quite slow and hits for a relatively low batting average, so at first glance, suggesting him to be a leadoff hitter may come off as absurd. But Grandal, who has always maintained healthy walk rates, took a staggering 109 of them last season. If he can come close to replicating his .380 on-base percentage from 2019, he would often find himself standing on first base with a star in Yoan Moncada at the plate. For similar reasoning, I would move Encarnacion, another slugger with a strong history of taking walks, to the #3 spot. I would then drop Abreu behind Jimenez so that he can continue to focus on driving in runs. Here is what I would prefer to see:

  1. Yasmani Grandal (S)
  2. Yoan Moncada (S)
  3. Edwin Encarnacion (R)
  4. Eloy Jimenez (R)
  5. Jose Abreu (R)
  6. Nomar Mazara (L)
  7. Tim Anderson (R)
  8. Luis Robert (R)
  9. Nick Madrigal (R)

The primary issue with this setup is that the handedness balance is somewhat ruined by having two switch hitters at the top of the lineup followed by three consecutive right-handed batters. I placed Mazara in the #6 spot in a perhaps feeble effort to mitigate this. Nevertheless, this lineup provides what, in my opinion, is a terrific equilibrium between on-base skills and power. The team’s run producers would have many plate appearances with runners on base, and there is elite speed stacked at the bottom of the order (Anderson/Robert/Madrigal) which would help increase runs driven in by Grandal and Moncada.

Given how deep the White Sox lineup is – and I will definitely need some time to get used to saying that – there exist several combinations that I would also support. Therefore, I am curious to know your thoughts. What do you expect Renteria to come up with, and what would you prefer he do? Let me know what you think in the article comments, in Facebook comments, or in Twitter replies!

Be sure to follow us on social media @SoxOn35th for more White Sox content!

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With Dallas Keuchel on board, the White Sox finally have respectable depth to surround their stars

by Nik Gaur
written by Nik Gaur

The reported signing of Dallas Keuchel by the Chicago White Sox is more impactful than some may realize. Granted, Keuchel is a quality pitcher who will add a reliable presence to an otherwise young and inexperienced rotation. Of course, he brings a championship pedigree and is known to be a leader. Simultaneously, however, he adds a previously unknown facet to the White Sox. Keuchel symbolizes depth, a fleeting characteristic that only a few powerful and winning franchises often obtain. The White Sox are ostensibly trying to compete in 2020, and unlike their most recent attempted competitive seasons, their depth will actually be a strength.

Current health aside, the White Sox have seven or more pitchers who will likely start games for the team in 2020: Lucas Giolito, Michael Kopech, Dylan Cease, Reynaldo Lopez, Carlos Rodon, Gio Gonzalez, and of course, Dallas Keuchel will be among them. Other hurlers such as Dane Dunning and Jimmy Lambert may also emerge. When was the last time the White Sox had seven competent MLB starters on their roster? Even in more competitive years such as 2016, Anthony Ranaudo and Jacob Turner started some games. Gone are the days of Ross Detwiler and Dylan Covey, barring a true catastrophe in which the majority of the starting rotation sustains major injuries. In the more probable event that a starting pitcher or two suffers an injury, the starting-caliber pitcher(s) concurrently in the bullpen (somebody like Reynaldo Lopez, or perhaps Gio Gonzalez late in the season) would shift to a starting role. As a result, normal and expected injuries will no longer be a death sentence for the White Sox.

While the Keuchel signing represents depth on the pitching side, a fitting and recent analogy for the importance of depth pertains to position players. In 2019, the White Sox offense would occasionally string together a week or two of high-scoring games. These streaks, unfortunately, were often interrupted by a key injury: Yoan Moncada, Eloy Jimenez, and Tim Anderson missed a combined 109 games last season. When these injuries occurred, the lineup would become hopeless. The team was forced to remove premier talent from the lineup for players such as Ryan Goins, Charlie Tilson, and Daniel Palka. Now, with competent bench bats such as James McCann and Leury Garcia in tow, position player injuries should not lead to a below replacement level player enjoying a large role. Garcia, for example, has proven himself as a capable regular at multiple positions, and he can fill in at any position aside from catcher. Additionally, players such as Zack Collins could see their roles increased.

The White Sox may have another major signing up their sleeve. A deal with Edwin Encarnacion or Nick Castellanos could insulate the position player depth even further and allow the team to use Nomar Mazara more creatively. On a smaller scale, a utility player such as Brock Holt could also fill in respectably. Unlike last season, players like Holt would be insurance policies as opposed to regulars. Such a development is crucial for the White Sox next year and beyond. Their 72 wins in 2019 were not a reflection of their core talent – in fact, their top players were on par with baseball’s best. Rather, the holes in the 2019 White Sox lineup and rotation were patched with historically bad production, and the organization has rectified this by signing excess talent and bolstering the roster with versatility. For the first time in over a decade, the Chicago White Sox have a competitive roster that does not simply consist of a few stars sprinkled among a mess of journeymen, but stars surrounded by true starting-caliber players. For this, the front office deserves to be commended.

Be sure to follow us on social media @SoxOn35th for more White Sox content!

Featured Photo: Atlanta Braves/Twitter

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What’s next for the White Sox after signing Yasmani Grandal?

by Nik Gaur
written by Nik Gaur

No, it wasn’t a dream: yesterday, the White Sox signed Yasmani Grandal, one of the two best catchers in baseball (arguably the best). When I wrote my mock offseason a mere week ago, I purposely did not include signings of players such as Grandal or Zack Wheeler. Both players figured to have robust and competitive markets, and I simply did not envision the White Sox winning a major bidding war. The only way they could have done so, in all probability, was by jumping the market and making an early signing.

Amazingly, that is exactly what happened. The mere fact that the White Sox learned from past mistakes and made a massive move opens up a whole world of possibilities that I did not fully consider. This offseason was predicted by many to mirror the last one, in the sense that there would still be quality unsigned players at the beginning of Spring Training. When Scott Boras suggested otherwise last week, I figured he was just attempting to spark the market for his players, like any good agent would do. However, he may be right, and if the Grandal signing is any indication, perhaps the White Sox offseason is already in full gear.

If the White Sox were willing to jump the market and pay a fair rate for Grandal, there is no reason they should be unable to do so for the two other players they have been most linked to: the previously mentioned Wheeler and Nick Castellanos. Wheeler and the Sox were linked heavily yesterday following the Grandal signing, and he is not represented by Scott Boras, which makes an earlier signing decision more likely. While Wheeler may see a deal in excess of $100 million, he would be a perfect fit in the White Sox rotation. As his market already appears to be strong, he could sign in a matter of weeks, if not days.

Castellanos, on the other hand, is represented by Scott Boras, but it may behoove the White Sox to execute their new strategy and offer him what is perceived to be his fair market value early on and see if he bites. An offseason consisting of signings of Grandal, Wheeler, and Castellanos seems too good to be true, but it is clear that the White Sox have interest in the latter two, and they certainly have plenty of money left to spend. The unexpected but pleasant signing of Grandal has made the prospect of a successful offseason infinitely more attainable. The front office’s new market strategy is working early on, so if it persists, the team’s next major announcement may arrive sooner rather than later.

Featured Photo: @WhiteSox/Twitter

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A 2019-2020 White Sox Mock Offseason

by Nik Gaur
written by Nik Gaur

Following Rick Hahn’s comments yesterday and the first influx of free agency rumors, I felt it was time to release my 2019-2020 White Sox Mock Offseason. This is not my dream scenario, which would certainly include a “big fish” such as Gerrit Cole, Stephen Strasburg, or Anthony Rendon. Rather, this is a reflection of what I believe will happen. I do think, perhaps foolishly, that the offseason will be pleasantly surprising. For an exhaustive list of the targets the White Sox may consider this offseason, please feel free to read or reread my complete offseason overview.

In my mock offseason, I attempt to plug the obvious holes on the roster by acquiring a designated hitter, a right fielder, two starting pitchers, and a catcher. While the White Sox are likely to improve their bullpen as well, there are so many potential relievers available with relatively unpredictable markets, so I omitted them from this plan under the assumption that one or two quality relievers will be signed for modest sums. In other words, I am not counting on a major reliever signing such as the improved Drew Pomeranz or the strikeout machine Dellin Betances.

First, let’s tie up the loose ends: Jose Abreu will be back, either when he accepts the team’s current qualifying offer, or when he signs for, let’s say, 2 years, $30 million, with a 3rd year mutual option for $18 million. Furthermore, every current player in arbitration will be tendered a contract except for Yolmer Sanchez, who I predict will still be brought back to the team to serve as a utility infielder for less than his $6 million arbitration projection. Now, for the fun part:

Trade: Acquire OF Joc Pederson from Dodgers for OF Blake Rutherford, LHP Hunter Schryver, and OF/3B Bryce Bush

There is a lot to unpack here. First, let’s take a look at a comment Rick Hahn made yesterday:

joc7

                                                       @Dodgers

A lot of the reaction to this comment seems to be centered around Mookie Betts, but I thought of Joc Pederson instead. Pederson will be signficantly cheaper to acquire, is more likely to re-sign following the season, and is still a very good player.

Last season, the White Sox were unable to acquire Pederson, but the rumored packages that the Dodgers considered often revolved around a left-handed reliever and Bryce Bush. With one year of service time remaining, Pederson’s trade value is either less or about the same (due to his strong performance in 2019) relative to last winter. Hunter Schryver is a left handed relief prospect who was solid before reaching the extremely hitter-friendly International League (AAA), Blake Rutherford is a young and potentially competent outfield prospect, and Bush is a toolsy hitter who struggled in 2019 but still showed flashes of promise. I have a feeling that White Sox fans will consider this an overpay for one year of Pederson and Dodgers fans will believe that it is not enough, which is always what I aim for in attempted trade proposals. I truly do not know what a trade for Pederson would look like, and this is just my best guess. Regardless, he does make a lot of sense as a target. (For the record, I would still love to see a trade for Brandon Nimmo, as I discussed during the season.)

Signing: RF/DH Nicholas Castellanos, 4 years, $75 million

Nicholas Castellanos provides a very reliable bat in the middle of the Sox order, and while he would likely play designated hitter more often than not with Pederson also being acquired, I would like to bring up this comment from Rick Hahn:

Castellanos could still get occasional starts in RF, and the lack of a true DH on the roster could help the team spell players occasionally and become more versatile overall. Luckily, Castellanos is a good enough hitter to justify playing at DH anyway. This would be the largest free agent contract in franchise history, but Castellanos seems likely to deliver a solid return on investment.

Signing: C Jason Castro, 3 years, $30 million

With the Sox acquiring Castellanos and Pederson in my projection, it would probably be unrealistic for me to include Yasmani Grandal as well. Grandal will have a robust market in any case, and a marriage with the White Sox will be an uphill battle.

Jason Castro, however, is a great complement to James McCann. He is a decent hitter and an excellent framer whom the White Sox young pitching staff will love throwing to. He also bats left-handed, which helps balance out the White Sox lineup a bit. The signing would not grab many headlines, but it would certainly help the Sox win games.

Signing: SP Cole Hamels, 2 years, $32 million with 3rd year $18 million mutual option

@Cubs

Look, I love Zack Wheeler, and I love that the White Sox have been attached to him already in rumors. Yet, with the Yankees and Angels seemingly determined to add a front-line starter, I think he ends up with one of them. One will land Cole and the other will land Wheeler, because I believe Stephen Strasburg re-signs with the Nationals. I do not trust the White Sox to win a bidding war with any of the aforementioned teams.

Cole Hamels, however, can still pitch well and would be a great influence on Lucas Giolito, Michael Kopech, Dylan Cease, and Reynaldo Lopez. He would slot in nicely in a Sox rotation desperate for a veteran that can turn in quality starts.

Signing: SP Rich Hill, 1 year, $9 million

Rick Hahn has alluded to the White Sox signing two starting pitchers and dealing with depth issues later, so why not sign someone who you basically know can’t get through a full season anyway?

Rich Hill is old and injury-prone, but when he does pitch, he is still fantastic. Treating him as half of a starter, to be paired with someone like Carlos Rodon, who is slated to return in the second half of the season, could be a smart way to maximize production from the rotation.

Outlook

I know, I spent $54 million in free agency for 2020 (assuming an even distribution of money over years), plus whatever Abreu gets, plus adding Joc Pederson. Might it be optimstic? Sure, but I also do not expect the Sox to maintain extremely low payrolls when their young core seems ready to contend. Based on other plans I have seen, mine may even be on the pessimistic end, since I am not including Grandal, Wheeler, or J.D. Martinez (via trade), even though those moves are possible.

Regardless, the team I put together would be pretty fun. It would look quite different in the first half compared to the second half due to returns from injuries and prospect promotions, but it seems like it would win a lot of games. Let me know what you think!

Early season rotation: Giolito, Hamels, Cease, Hill, Lopez

Late season rotation: Giolito, Hamels, Cease, Kopech, Rodon/Lopez

Early season lineup: SS Anderson, 3B Moncada, LF Jimenez, RF Pederson, DH Castellanos, 1B Abreu, C McCann/Castro, CF Garcia, 2B Sanchez

Early season bench (Assuming 4 players instead of 3 due to new roster rules): C Castro/McCann, PH/C/DH/1B Collins, IF Mendick, OF Engel

Late season lineup: SS Anderson, 3B Moncada, LF Jimenez, RF Pederson, DH Castellanos, 1B Abreu, CF Robert, 2B Madrigal, C McCann/Castro 

Late season bench: C Castro/McCann, PH/C/DH/1B Collins, IF Sanchez, UTIL Garcia

Featured Photo: @Tigers (Twitter)

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