The Mourning After: Opening Day Woes

This is now my fourth installment of “The Mourning After” series, the first three being:

• The day after it was announced Kopech need TJ Surgery
• The day after the Padres signed Manny Machado
• The day after the Phillies signed Zach Wheeler

So, clearly, I save this columns for important days to rally the troops. This day is no different.

The White Sox woke up this morning 0-1 after a 10-5 loss to the Twins last night. We are going to go through what led them to this, but we are also going to discuss some of the positives that should keep us all going as Sox fans.

But, you have to promise me this: we need to react better to losses. If I have to write one of these after every loss this year, “The Mourning After” columns will lose their meaning.

With that, let’s begin.

Lucas Giolito

Lucas Giolito didn’t have a great start tonight, and he will be the first one to tell you that. I want to break down some of the key parts of his start, but we have to start with what the pitcher himself said about his outing.

“I don’t really feel good about tonight. Tonight’s a night where you just throw it right into the trash can and move on. I know that my stuff plays. If I command the fastball just a little bit better tonight, it could’ve been a completely different game. I’m not going to lose confidence in my stuff or my ability. It was just one of those nights when I wasn’t able to make the adjustment when I needed to.”

Giolito on Friday Night’s Outing

There’s not much to say about that except: he’s right.

https://sporty-clips.mlb.com/d76a6baf-02bb-4419-8320-94e4d9f94e89.mp4

Fastball command put Giolito in a rough spot from the very first pitch of the game. In theory, that didn’t seem like a terrible pitch, until you look at Kepler’s heat map from 2019. From that, you can see how Giolito found himself in trouble from the first pitch. This team can hit fastballs, and Giolito got it too far up in the zone for a team that was clearly hunting the fastball tonight. I will be fair to Giolito though: that homer from Kepler was a bit of a fluke: it had an expected batting average (xBA) of .190. So, it can simultaneously not be a good pitch and still be luck on the part of Kepler.

From there, it didn’t really get better for Giolito throughout the first inning, as you can see in the videos below. Pay attention to where Grandal sets up, and where Giolito’s pitch ends up. Missing spots against a team this good will just not work.

https://sporty-clips.mlb.com/11c486ca-dd0b-479f-a552-25022f1cd87a.mp4

https://sporty-clips.mlb.com/8aa54080-b137-4157-bbfe-6e7e05481a6c.mp4

Command of a fastball is crucial for a pitcher. It’s the pitch off of which every other pitch in his arsenal works. This was most apparent to me in an at-bat against Mitch Garver in the first inning. Garver saw nine pitches, didn’t swing and miss at any of them, and fouled four pitches off – two of which were changeups roped foul. In that at-bat, the Twins’ full plan for Giolito was clear. Through Cave, Kepler, and others, the plan was clearly to attack the first pitch fastball. However, it quickly became apparent to the Twins that Giolito didn’t have his best fastball tonight. So, they started cheating on his next best pitch: his changeup. If you can rule a fastball out of the equation, it makes sitting on off speed that much easier. Granted, they didn’t miss their first pitch fastballs, but they also didn’t miss their off speed pitches either last night.

So, I dug into it a bit. What I found can be seen below, comparing Giolito at his best (2019 SO vs. the Twins) to tonight. The more shaded points are his 2019 start against Minnesota. The darker points are from last night. The results are pretty clear:

I think a part of Giolito was just struggling with his release point too. Perhaps this is what he meant by “slowing the game down,” but it is clear that his release points was a lot more variable this evening than in a typical start of his. This kind of stuff will happen: it’s Opening Day, and pitchers had 2.5 weeks to get ready for this 60 game sprint. Berrios didn’t look sharp tonight either – the only reason Twins fans aren’t upset is because they won.

Let me make this perfectly clear though: there is absolutely no reason to assume Lucas Giolito is regressing to his 2018 form based on this game. This is the sort of reaction we as fans should aim to avoid – though it was certainly a popular reaction on Twitter last night, much to my frustration. There’s simply no basis for it, and trust me, it’s only going to drive you nuts in the long run if you start to speculate about every player regressing.

My suggestion: do what Giolito plans to do: flush this start and try again in five days. Pitchers aren’t going to have their best stuff every time out.

Leury Garcia

Perhaps much more frustrating, for me personally, than an off night for a starting pitcher who only had 2.5 weeks to prepare for the season were the defensive woes for Leury Garcia at 2B. Make no mistake, Lucas Giolito did not have a good game. However, the damage could’ve been much more controlled with a strong defensive effort behind him.

Let’s break it down really quickly with a couple videos from the first inning.

https://sporty-clips.mlb.com/99e43a98-c376-4373-af9f-a8d81dcd538a.mp4

This first one is pretty obvious. It appeared Garcia was late to get to the bag due to the shift, and as a result, had to make an acrobatic play. This was not scored an error, and it shouldn’t be. However, it’s a mistake that cost the Sox – and a struggling Giolito – a crucial out.

As for the next play:

https://sporty-clips.mlb.com/dac3bd3a-967f-474a-8ae7-69dabadcb1bc.mp4

This play had me far more concerned about Garcia long-term at 2B. Errors on the transfer happen to everyone. However, this play was a mental mistake, which I chalk up to a natural OF playing out of place. The play here, despite what the situation might’ve appeared to be, was not to get the out at 2B. Garcia was on the left side of second base, trying to flip the ball to Anderson. He got off a weak throw that couldn’t beat a fast runner. Instead, the ball should’ve been thrown to first, where Garcia could’ve salvaged one out on the play with Nelson Cruz running. This was again not scored an error, but rather is a mental mistake that extended the inning further. Giolito would’ve been out of there after 10 pitches.

Again, this is something that happens with instinct. Players know exactly what they want to do with the ball in every situation when they’ve played at a position long enough. They know who is up, the speed of everyone involved, and exactly what throws are in their range in any given situation. This situation was a result of a lack of long-term experience at the position, in my opinion. Things didn’t get better throughout the night, either – the 7th inning was another particularly poor one, but we all watched the game, so no need to revisit it.

So, how do the White Sox fix this? Like it or not, Nick Madrigal won’t be up for another week or so. The White Sox are not the only team to play these games with service time; ask the Cardinals about Dylan Carlson, the Angels about Jo Adell, or the Dodgers about Gavin Lux. Teams are going to do this, and it’s because baseball is a business – this is not a justification; rather, it’s an explanation. So, in the meantime, I’d prefer to see something I’ve talked a lot about: I’d prefer to see Danny Mendick get more ABs.

Mendick is one of a few Sox players who the team – and fans – cannot confidently say they are sure what they are going to get out of him. Between being stuck behind Yolmer Sanchez and Leury Garcia, Mendick has never been afforded the opportunity to play himself into a long-term utility role on the South Side. I would prefer that, so long as Madrigal is kept down, Mendick is given whatever playing time he can be given – especially as a natural infielder – to prove his long-term worth to the White Sox. We know the type of player Garcia is – he’s been here for 7 years, and he has yet to have an OPS above the accepted average of .700. He’s a ballplayer whose weaknesses get exposed the more he plays. The White Sox don’t know who Mendick is yet, and with whatever chances they have, they should be giving them to him. I can confidently say Leury Garcia is not part of the long-term plans for the White Sox; I have nothing I can say about Mendick – no one does yet. So, it’s frustrating that Garcia finds himself back in the lineup this afternoon.

Luis Robert

Alright, let’s get to some of the positives. Welcome to The Show, Luis Robert. Your 2-for-4 showing was a sorely needed sight on an evening when not a lot went right for the White Sox. His first major league hit was hit harder – 115.8 mph – than almost every ball the Sox hit all of last year. He has impressive bat to ball skills and raw power.

However, the most impressive part for me was Robert’s second hit of the game. Him working the count and driving the ball to the opposite field is absolutely crucial to his development this season. When Robert is able to routinely drive balls the opposite way – especially off speed pitches – it will be safe to say he’s arrived at the big league level. Look for this to hopefully happen sooner than later this season.

Yoan Moncada

If people were worried about Yoan Moncada’s response to dealing with COVID-19, Moncada himself certainly wasn’t one of those people. Moncada finished the night 3-for-5, just a triple short of the cycle. He held good at-bats against good Twins pitching while punishing mistakes. Throughout the next couple of days, it will be worth watching how his body responses to the daily fatigue of being a major leaguer. However, he apparently talked himself into Saturday’s lineup, so he probably feels pretty good.

The Kids Lead the Charge

Eloy Jimenez, Yoan Moncada, Luis Robert, and Tim Anderson combined for all the hits and runs scored today (9-for-17). That is a very very good sign for the future. Veterans like Abreu, Grandal, and Encarnacion will come around – give it some time. However, it is promising to see that the youth is driving the offense, at least to start the season.

Keep Calm and Go Sox

This is the first game in a long time that we as White Sox fans watched with expectations for the team. Because of that, it’s understandable to react to last night in a way in which one would likely react if the sky were falling. But here’s the thing: the White Sox are going to lose a lot of games over the next few years. They’re going to lose less games than in previous years, but things are going to suck at times. Pitchers will struggle, hitters will go into slumps. That’s baseball, and like it or not, that’s the beauty of it – not everything that’s on paper translates into the actual games.

The best thing for all of us to do is keep as calm as we can and enjoy the fact that we get games this year to watch. Avoid getting too worked up over one bad lost, or too high over one really good win. No, Cooper/Renteria shouldn’t be fired after last night. No, Giolito and Grandal aren’t busts. Yes, these are actual things on my timeline from last night. Frustrations with the lineup are understandable, and clearly based on the above, I have my own concerns. However, you’re going to stress yourselves out way too much over the course of a 162 game season, much less a 60 game season now. There’s no fun in making yourselves miserable over these games. The State of the White Sox is as strong as it’s been in a long time. Let’s choose to focus on that, and be a bit kinder to one another 🙂

Here’s the other beauty of baseball: there’s a game today too. A fresh, new start. Let’s all take the opportunity to look at it that way. Go Sox, friends.

Thoughts? Comments? Drop them below or let me know on Twitter! @jlazowski14

Featured Photo: White Sox (@whitesox) / Twitter