Yesterday, the White Sox signed Japanese superstar Munetaka Murakami to a two-year, $34M contract. The move was shocking for several reasons: the relatively short contract length, the fact that the White Sox were the team Murakami chose, and the difference between Murakami’s projected salaries and the actual result. Nevertheless, the Murakami signing is perhaps the most exciting acquisition for White Sox fans since the team won the Luis Robert sweepstakes in 2017.
Here are three takeaways from the signing.
1. The White Sox have a new approach to free agency
This works on multiple levels. First, it goes without saying that the White Sox have not been very active in the Japanese free agent market, despite some attempts over the years (Masahiro Tanaka most notably). The fact that the White Sox signed an international free agent from Japan for the first time since Tadahito Iguchi in 2005 is significant enough, but it is even more meaningful that they made such a splashy signing, acquiring one of the best Japanese players who has been available over the last decade. Ideally, the team will continue its activity in Japan in the coming years.
In addition, this is a welcome change to the way the White Sox have handled resource allocation. If you listened to our podcast (embedded at the bottom of this article), you will have already heard this point, but the White Sox of yesteryear would not make this expensive (on a per-year basis) of a signing with a limited budget. Gone are the days of having $25 million to spend and splitting it between Leury Garcia, Kendall Graveman, Joe Kelly, and Josh Harrison. Fans have been begging for even limited budgets to be allocated to higher-impact players like Murakami, considering that the former approach typically yields low (or negative) returns and replacement-level production. Even if the White Sox do not make more significant signings after Murakami and Anthony Kay, most fans would prefer this approach to the alternative.
2. Murakami himself must be confident in his ability to adjust to MLB pitching
The most surprising aspect of the Munetaka Murakami signing might not even be the team he chose. That Murakami is only under contract for two years, after many initially assumed he would get a contract of at least five and potentially closer to ten years, is the bigger shock. It is probably safe to assume that Murakami, even in a weaker market, could have secured a longer deal at a shorter average annual value. But the fact that he chose a two-year contract, which will allow him to become a free agent at age 27, speaks to his own confidence. If he is successful, he will command a much more lucrative deal while in his prime.
And despite the red flags around Murakami’s strikeout rate and the overall swing-and-miss concerns, it is still easy to see him performing at a high level. In this era, players can strike out more than 30% of the time and still be above-average hitters, typically due to power that offsets this. The White Sox have some very recent experience with this, given the work Ryan Fuller and the organization did to tweak Colson Montgomery’s swing and approach in the Arizona hitting lab. While it was a half-season sample, Montgomery struck out at a 29.2% clip this year, but registered a 129 wRC+ due in large part to his .290 ISO (i.e., Montgomery hit a lot of home runs and was 29% better than the league average-hitter as a result, despite a high strikeout rate).
Murakami’s issue is not that he chases pitches out of the zone, but that he is more susceptible to swinging and missing on pitches in the strike zone. This is something that can be improved upon with swing adjustments, tweaks to setup and load, and, as mentioned, coaching. In the past, the White Sox perhaps would not have been an ideal organization to help this talented of a player, but after the 2025 season, the modernization of the organization’s hitting coaching makes them a much better bet to help Murakami improve.
3. While the signing is very exciting, the long-term upside for the White Sox is limited
The range of outcomes for Murakami is wider than perhaps any player in the White Sox organization. If his in-zone contact rate falls against MLB pitching, it could end up below 70%, which is likely untenable. Rafael Devers was the only productive MLB hitter with an in-zone contact rate below 72% (Devers is actually a great high-end comparison for Murakami, as he is another left-handed hitter with limited defensive value who absolutely pulverizes the ball, has good plate discipline, but struggles to make contact consistently in the zone).
However, this is also the problem for the White Sox — if Murakami does end up producing at a very high level, the chances of the team keeping him after the two-year contract are slim. Devers is signed to a ten-year, $313M contract, which illustrates that teams will pay for elite offense even if there is little defensive value. It is difficult to see the White Sox making that kind of commitment to any player.
This would be a good problem to have, of course, and if Murakami were really that good and the White Sox knew he would be too expensive to keep, they could trade him before the 2027 trade deadline. But Murakami even having this high of a ceiling is an undeniable positive.
The other side of this coin is that if Murakami struggles and is not a long-term MLB player, the White Sox are fairly insulated by only needing to keep him for two years. Depending on one’s point of view, that means that this is technically not the high-risk, high-reward contract that it may appear to be on the surface, but closer to a medium-risk, medium-reward contract.
There is certainly a plausible scenario where Murakami becomes a good hitter who is indeed worth keeping, but not a Devers-esque bat. This is the sweet spot for the White Sox where he may be more attainable long-term — Josh Naylor‘s recent five-year, $92M deal with the Mariners is a relevant benchmark here. While that would be the most expensive contract in White Sox history, it is still a fairly reasonable deal for the team to consider, especially with how little money is committed to the roster long-term.
Despite the vast range of outcomes, that the White Sox of all teams landed Munetaka Murakami is extremely exciting for the fanbase. To steal another line from the podcast (below), it is reminiscent of Will Venable choosing the White Sox, as Venable was a very popular managerial candidate that turned down past opportunities with the Mets, for example.
To move away from baseball, it is also somewhat similar to Ben Johnson choosing the Chicago Bears over other opportunities. This is uncharted territory for the White Sox, and regardless of what the future holds, it should at the very least be a privilege for the fans to get to watch Murakami daily over the next two years.
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