Why I Haven’t Given Up on Carson Fulmer

Okay, so you’ve clicked on the article and you’re here. Good, that means you’re at least interested in entertaining the idea that Carson Fulmer might not stink forever. Fulmer’s major league career to this point has been anything but positive. He’s shown an inability to string together consistent positive outings, forcing him to jump back and forth between AAA and the majors in a role that is more similar to Dylan Covey’s than that of an effective major league arm. He has descended from mid-rotation lock to bullpen-likely to potential bust in a quick fall from grace.

Most fans, understandably, are ready to pull the plug on Fulmer. Based on the results, I don’t blame any fan who does so. But, Fulmer was drafted 8th overall for some reasons, many of which I believe are still apparent in the player we see today. Is Carson Fulmer ever going to be the elite rotation man we dreamed he would be? Probably not. But, given the underlying metrics I’m going to lay out to you, I still firmly believe that Carson Fulmer has the stuff to turn himself into a reliable major league arm – but the clock is certainly running out. I’ll lay out the facts – you make the call from there.

The Positives

The Kid Can Really “Spin” It

In today’s game of baseball, one of the most important metrics for a pitcher is spin rate. It’s a metric I’ve talked about a lot, but for those of you unfamiliar with it, spin rate is exactly what it sounds like: the rate at which a thrown pitch rotates. A high spin rate essentially means a pitcher can fight the force of gravity on a baseball. Thus, it feels as if that pitch is “rising”. This means that a 93 mph fastball with a high spin rate is more effective than a 93 mph fastball with a low spin rate, as it will cross the plate a few inches higher than anticipated by the hitter.

Spin rate is not something that, as far as we know, can really be taught. Improvement in spin rate often comes through experimentation rather than a set formula. Hence, it’s incredibly difficult to turn a pitcher from a low spin rate guy to a high spin rate guy. This is where Carson Fulmer comes in. While Fulmer’s average velocity is around 93-94 mph, he is in the 91st percentile in terms of spin rate. That’s elite territory right there. According to Baseball Savant, Fulmer gets 9% – or 1.5 inches – more “rise” on his fastball than the average 91-95 mph pitcher.

It doesn’t necessarily take an elite fastball in terms of velocity in order to be successful. I’m not saying velocity doesn’t help, but I am saying that it’s not necessarily the end of the world. Take a look at the top 15 pitchers in terms of vertical movement (“rise”) compared to the average:

Other than guys like Verlander, Cole, and Osuna, most of these guys are relievers who sit in the 91-94 range, just like Fulmer. These guys are also quality, reliable arms as well. While Fulmer doesn’t possess the same “rise” as the best of the best, his elite spin rate is something that will continue to be a point of encouragement for success in the majors.

His Curveball

This section has a very similar theme to the first about his fastball. Let’s talk spin rate again. A curveball with a high spin rate is going to induce more ground balls than the average curveball. Keeping the ball out of the air is a good thing. Just like with fastballs, not all 85 mph curveballs are created the same. So, if you had to guess, where do you think Fulmer’s curveball would rank?

You probably guessed it: very high – 86th percentile to be exact. This makes sense when looking at Fulmer’s numbers: his GB% is 45.5%, which would be 28th among qualified pitchers if he had enough innings. In terms of vertical movement, it gets about a half an inch less of drop than the average curveball. This, however, is vast improvement over 2018, when his curveball got 5.6 less inches of drop than the average curveball.

Because of that last fact, you might be wondering why I’ve included his curveball as a reason for optimism. The reason is this: hitters have a .100 AVG against his curveball this season, with a 37.5% Whiff %. That is incredibly good. The numbers on the curve were just as good last year: .125 AVG, 28.6% Whiff %. Even though it doesn’t break as much as the average curveball, it still is an incredibly effective pitch. With some work, Fulmer could create more drop on his curveball, making it an elite pitch. Either way, as currently designed, Fulmer’s curveball, much like his fastball, is an encouraging part of his arsenal.

The overall good news is this: it’s Fulmer’s “stuff” that makes him so encouraging, even as he has struggled. Let’s get to the important part: how he can improve.

What Needs to Change

Throwing Strikes

Oh yeah, gee, not exactly a novel concept here, right? Sure, but it’s incredibly important. I firmly believe this is the single thing standing in between Carson Fulmer and success. Not stuff, not velocity, but rather command. Odds are most of you agree with me. Fulmer has never been a guy who is consistently able to pound the zone. This is most likely because even at Vanderbilt, he never had to be someone like this – his pure stuff was so good that he could rely on hitters to chase stuff out of the zone. Since his start in professional ball, however, Fulmer has seen mechanical change after mechanical change in an effort to smooth out his delivery. The only constant amongst all these different deliveries has been his inability to locate the zone. He started this year, after going to Driveline, with mechanics that mirrored his college days:

I don’t have the answer for how to fix his strike-throwing problem. Personally, I think his front side flies open a bit while his arm trails from the side. This would be part of why his pitches have so much run arm side if you watch some videos. I wish he would get more on top of some of his pitches (especially his curveball). Regardless, I don’t have a good answer – I’m just an armchair pitching coach ya know. These are just my personal thoughts.

I’m not sure if improvement for Fulmer requires a Lucas Giolito-type overhaul of his mechanics, but I do know that while Fulmer focused his work at Driveline last offseason, his focus should absolutely be in regards to his mechanics this offseason. The stuff is there – and Driveline certainly helped this. But there’s still another step to take, and it could mean the difference between a major league career and a minor league journeyman.

Figure Out His Pitch Usage

In addition to Fulmer’s elite spin rate on his fastball and above average vertical movement. He also throws a cutter. His cutter has really good horizontal movement – even better than the vertical movement on his fastball. If you think about it, horizontal movement is more important for a cutter – you want the ball to move across the zone. Fulmer’s certainly does this – about 119% more (2.5 inches) than average.

So why is this a problem? Well, Fulmer is throwing something hard to hitters 77.2% (43% four-seam fastball, 34.2% cutter) of the time this season. If a hitter can be 75% sure a fastball of some sort is coming, he’s going to take those odds every time, no matter what level he plays at. Perhaps this comes as no surprise, but hitters are batting .320 against Fulmer’s fastball and .306 against his cutter (interestingly enough, though, his expected statistics are much better than this, meaning Fulmer might have some bad luck associated with his 2019 performance).

Both the White Sox and the Cubs agree on something other than Buona Beef: using the cutter. In fact, they are the top two teams in baseball in terms of Cutter % this season (# Cutters/# Total Pitches). Here’s what’s interesting about that: while the league has sat pretty steadily at around 5%-6% for Cutter %, the White Sox have drastically increased their cutter usage in 2019:

Here are some of the names that use the cutter for the Sox: Alex Colome, Jace Fry, Ross Detwiler, Kelvin Herrera, Carson Fulmer, and Josh Osich. The theme here appears to be clear: pitchers with below average fastballs are bolstering their arsenal by using the cutter. It’s not a bad strategy.

Here’s the thing: it’s very clear that, in terms of stuff, Carson Fulmer does not have a below average fastball. This would lead most to conclude that there’s no reason to throw a cutter, and that 34.2% of pitches should be allocated to his four-seam and offspeed. Fulmer is an interesting mix though, simply because of the very good horizontal movement on his cutter that I mentioned, as well as the very good horizontal movement on his four-seam. So, one pitch moves one way, while the other moves another.

Keeping both of these pitches is not necessarily a bad thing – I don’t want to suggest that it is. That being said, if a hitter can assume that 75% of the time a fastball is coming, it counteracts all of the positives that good movement create. What I am suggesting, therefore, is that the White Sox need to think about the way they decide to use Fulmer’s arsenal. They should mix in his curveball and changeup much more than they do currently. His curveball is clearly his best “out” pitch, so why isn’t it being used more with two strikes?

Basically, this visual is just another example of how infrequently Fulmer uses his curveball and changeup in any count, even when ahead. Fastballs dominate every count, making it even easier for a hitter to guess what is coming. Any good pitcher needs to be able to throw all of his pitches with confidence in any count. The White Sox’ current scheme is not allowing Fulmer to do this, and as a result, he is incredibly predictable as a pitcher. I mean, as a good example, look how surprised Daniel Robertson was to get a first pitch curveball, something Fulmer has throw only ten times this year. He sold it well, but the back knee clearly buckled as he geared up for a fastball, based on the data of course.

An important step forward for Fulmer will be showing a clear mix in pitches so that he becomes less predictable. If he can locate every pitch consistently for strikes and vary his very obvious predictable patterns, he has a much better chance of being a successful pitcher (no kidding, right?). This will be up to the White Sox’ coaching staff to help implement.

Help Build His Confidence

Outside of command, this might be the most important problem facing Fulmer. Think about it: you’re rushed through the system, never given full time to develop. You, understandably, struggle your first time up, and you’re shuffled back and forth, to Charlotte and back, just trying to gain some footing and some confidence. Not easy to gain either given the circumstances.

Let me be clear: I’m not trying to make excuses for Fulmer. But, one of the keys to Lucas Giolito’s turnaround has been a restored confidence in himself as a pitcher and in his stuff. Giolito has spoken before about how his time with the Nationals shook his confidence and development as a pitcher, and we already know the White Sox have a history of rushing pitchers to the majors before they’re truly ready. The mental game of baseball is a real aspect that, while not tangible or described by metrics, can be seen and should be considered. Teaching a pitcher confidence is not easy – it’s honestly practically impossible. But maybe Fulmer should consider seeing the same men who Giolito saw this offseason, as he has spoken endlessly about the Neurofeedback program he was on. Hey, it couldn’t hurt.

It’s also important to keep in mind that this is still a lost season, and as much as wins and losses concern the fans, it is likely that they don’t concern the front office. So, while Fulmer has largely been used as a low-leverage mop-up man this season, it would likely benefit him to be given the opportunity to pitch in higher leverage situations over the next three weeks. He doesn’t necessarily need to succeed in every situation to feel a bit more confident, but I firmly believe the White Sox showing the confidence in Fulmer to trust him in higher leverage situations would only serve to benefit him. It’s hard to have confidence when your number is only called when your team is either winning or losing by five runs. The important thing here is that if this was a winning ballclub, I wouldn’t have written this paragraph – every win matters as a competitor in September. Context is necessary for every situation, and this September is the time to try new things.

The wild, energetic, full-of-passion Fulmer from his Vanderbilt days is in there somewhere. It’s about time someone or something unlocked that side of him again. Some sustained success would certainly help, but that can’t come without confidence.

After all of this, you still may not be convinced that Carson Fulmer will ever succeed in the majors. That’s absolutely your right to do so. Honestly, 2019 Carson Fulmer is like 2018 Lucas Giolito to me – I just feel something that I can’t really perfectly describe, as much as I try to use the numbers to help me do so. The stuff is there – the metrics say so. The eye test is generally a pass too – the movement on some of his pitches is really, really good. The command isn’t there, and I don’t believe the confidence is either. Can he harness those two things and, with a variance in repertoire, capture some sustained success? I’m not sure. But, as always, I remain hopeful.

This article wasn’t meant to convince you one way or another about Fulmer’s future, but I hope you walk away at least a little more hopeful than before. I love Carson Fulmer as a player; that’s never been much of a secret. I’ve always said I firmly believe Fulmer will find success, though I’m not sure it will be with the White Sox. Either way, time will tell.

Let me know your thoughts on Twitter! You can find me at: @jlazowski14

Featured Photo: Wade Payne/Associated Press