The White Sox signed Munetaka Murakami to a two-year contract in December, largely because of growing doubts from other teams about Murakami’s ability to perform at a high level against MLB pitching. The two-year contract was a high-risk, high-reward decision by Murakami, as he sacrificed longer-term security but opened himself up for a significant payday if his bet on himself succeeds.
From the team’s point of view, the contract was a no-brainer. Not only does Murakami offer high upside at the plate, but his international superstardom provides the White Sox with previously unavailable revenue opportunities. However, long-term impact on the team during (likely) more competitive seasons will be limited unless the White Sox either sign Murakami to a contract extension or trade him for more assets before his current deal expires.
Overall, there are four key factors worth considering when discussing Murakami’s MLB and White Sox future. These are his own performance, his off-field value, player comparisons, and the White Sox organization itself.
Murakami’s performance
Whether or not it is realistic for the White Sox to re-sign Murakami completely depends on the caliber of player he becomes. Below is a general range of outcomes based on wRC+. The color coding is essentially meant to represent the likelihood of the White Sox realistically re-signing Murakami along with the organization’s desire to do so, all based on his performance. Entering Monday, Murakami has a 158 wRC+ in a very small sample. When he reaches free agency, he will be entering his age twenty-eight season.
wRC+ below 100
If Murakami ends up as a below-average hitter, especially as a first baseman, he will not be worth re-signing to a significant deal once his contract expires.
wRC+ between 100 and 110
If Murakami is an average hitter or slightly better, he could be worth re-signing to a (relatively) cheap deal as a platoon hitter. Carlos Santana has been this level of player since ~2021 and has routinely received short-term deals at $5-10 million per year since then.
wRC+ between 111 and 120
This is where things start to get more interesting. If Murakami is a solidly above-average hitter, but not a true game-changer, he would be worth re-signing. The White Sox would theoretically be able to afford this contract since it would likely be in the $10-15 million/year range, with perhaps a small bump due to off-field value.
wRC+ between 121 and 130
This is the sweet spot for the White Sox. At this level, Murakami would be cemented as a truly solid slugger, but not someone that would require a record-breaking commitment (for 29 franchises, at least). For example, Ryan O’Hearn matched this description in 2025 and received a two-year, $29 million contract. Murakami is considerably younger, but at this level, he would likely receive a longer (five or more years) contract in the $20 million per year range. While this would be the largest contract in White Sox history, it is one that they could realistically accommodate. (With inflation, it’s pretty similar to the contracts given to Andrew Benintendi and Yasmani Grandal).
wRC+ between 131 and 140
In this range, Murakami would be one of the best hitters in baseball. For reference, players who have been hovering in/around this range in recent years include Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Fernando Tatis Jr., and Rafael Devers. While the wRC+ jump from the prior range to this one is relatively small from a percentage standpoint, the difference in on-field impact would be significant. As a result, the average value of Murakami’s contract would likely jump far above the ~$20 million/year range, and would be closer to the $35 million/year that Guerrero received in 2025. While the White Sox would surely want to keep Murakami in this range, they would likely be unable to.
wRC+ above 140
If Murakami’s wRC+ during his first two seasons exceeds 140, he would be one of the few elite hitters in the sport alongside Aaron Judge, Shohei Ohtani, and Juan Soto. Here, Murakami’s contract would enter the territory where only a few teams — such as the Dodgers, Yankees, Mets, and Blue Jays — would be serious contenders to land him.
Of course, this analysis is fairly high-level and only considers offense. However, a player like Murakami is unlikely to make a significant impact on defense or the basepaths. So far, he has seemed like a capable defender at first base — he has had a couple mishaps, but has also made some athletic stops, as well as some nice picks and throws. Unless he proves to be a complete liability in the field, it is safe to assume that his contract will be determined by his offense.
Murakami’s off-field value
While it is difficult (and too early) to quantify, it is also clear that Munetaka Murakami’s international superstardom has brought new revenue opportunities to the White Sox. Anecdotally, Murakami merchandise is selling quite well, and this is benefitting the White Sox financially in a way that the organization has not experienced before. Additionally, the influx of Japanese fans at White Sox games and participating in online discourse about the team has been noticeable.
While some of this is simply because the White Sox have not had Japanese players in recent years, there is also something to be said for the pull of Murakami himself. Whether it is from social media engagement numbers or general conversation topics throughout the baseball media landscape, Shohei Ohtani is the only Japanese player who seems to have more clout. (Perhaps Yoshinobu Yamamoto would as well if he were not overshadowed by Ohtani, his own teammate). This includes Japanese players that play in Murakami’s new city: Seiya Suzuki and Shota Imanaga. Whether it’s his power at the plate, his personality, or both, Murakami’s off-field value is in a different class.
Only the White Sox will truly be able to quantify this. But considering Shohei Ohtani’s $700 million contract reportedly paid for itself within the first two years, it is obvious that off-field value can be an important consideration in these contract discussions. For example, if Murakami is equally productive to Ryan O’Hearn, he will likely receive more than O’Hearn’s $14.5 million/year. Granted, inflation and age are factors here, but off-field value is as well.
Player (contract) comparisons
The good news for the White Sox should Murakami play well is that standout first basemen are generally less expensive than their equivalents at premium positions like shortstop and starting pitcher. This is apparent from perusing the list of first base contracts, but simply analyzing that list and applying it to Murakami would be reductive.
For instance, many of the top first base contracts were signed several years ago when the free agent market was quite different from the current reality. Freddie Freeman signed for $27 million/year, but that was four years ago (and he was thirty-two years old). Only contracts signed within the last two years are relevant here.
As mentioned, Munetaka Murakami is currently twenty-six and will be twenty-eight when he begins the 2028 season on a new contract. Many of the top contracts to first basemen were given when the player was older. Pete Alonso was thirty-one years old when the Orioles signed him before this season, for instance. Teams will pay a premium for the extra prime years of a slugger like Murakami, both in contract duration and average annual value.
All of that said, there are only a few first basemen who signed new contracts (excluding pre-arbitration deals) within the last two years that are worth mentioning here.
Pete Alonso (age 31), Baltimore Orioles: 5 years, $155 million ($31 million AAV)
Pete Alonso is an interesting case. He has a career 132 wRC+, but is a thirty-one year old right-handed hitter. This works against him since his best years at the plate are likely behind him, but it does help that he has an established track record. However, Alonso surely would have received a more lucrative deal had he been three years younger, or Murakami’s age when he will reach free agency.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (26), Toronto Blue Jays: 14 years, $500 million (~$36 million AAV)
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is certainly a high-end case, and it is of course worth noting that he was two years younger at signing than Murakami will be when he is a free agent. However, the length of the contract is a direct result of Guerrero Jr.’s age relative to Alonso and other veteran first basemen. Because Murakami will be twenty-eight when he signs his next deal, a 10+ year contract is certainly a possibility. While the AAV should be lower than Guerrero Jr.’s provided Murakami is not an MVP-caliber hitter, it could still surpass Pete Alonso’s and result in a total commitment well over $300 million.
Josh Naylor (28), Seattle Mariners: 5 years, $92.5 million ($18.5 million AAV)
From an age standpoint, Josh Naylor is the best comparison for Munetaka Murakami. Naylor has a career 113 wRC+, but he posted a career-best 128 wRC+ in 2025 after three consecutive seasons at 118 or higher. This is essentially the sweet spot mentioned earlier: if Murakami is a Naylor-caliber hitter, he will be expensive, but affordable enough for the White Sox to be a real contender to sign him.
Christian Walker (33), Houston Astros: 3 years, $60 million ($20 million AAV)
While Christian Walker was five years older as a free agent than Murakami will be, it is still worth mentioning that he received a higher AAV at a later stage in his career than Josh Naylor despite similar overall production. Perhaps this contract is more of an outlier, but it serves as another data point to demonstrate that if Murakami hits, he will command a robust total contract value considering his age.
White Sox organizational considerations
Another consideration is the White Sox and upcoming payroll commitments. The White Sox do not have any money committed to players after the 2027 season (only a couple mutual options, and of course arbitration-eligible players). This makes the team more likely to be able to support a potential Murakami contract, even if he ends up being more of an Alonso/Guerrero Jr. than a Naylor.
White Sox fans would certainly like for the team to be in the picture, even if Murakami is deep into the $30+ million AAV range. It is at least somewhat possible for this to happen given the lack of payroll commitments, but it would still be a major surprise to see the franchise commit so much money to one player given its history.
And as discussed last year, the idea that Justin Ishbia can simply sign players to expensive contracts before he officially takes control of the team is farfetched. It is very possible that he operates more aggressively than fans are used to, but doing so before he owns the team is not as easy as it may sound.
In other words, Ishbia cannot simply write a check for the White Sox to sign a marquee free agent this winter. The money that he would be hypothetically contributing would result in him receiving additional shares in the team at its current valuation. This is not something that can be avoided, because ultimately the White Sox (like other teams) are a business.
Based on what has been reported by The Athletic, it seems as though some White Sox shareholders have sold to Ishbia, while others have chosen to hold on for now and sell in the future (or perhaps even keep their shares if permitted). When Ishbia does eventually purchase more shares of the White Sox, eventually obtaining controlling interest in the team, he will likely be buying out current investors at the valuation that is most up-to-date. Regardless of on-field performance, baseball team valuations consistently rise, so by contributing to free agent spending in the short-term, Ishbia would be buying more shares at a lesser valuation, which is not an appealing proposition for current team investors looking to maximize their returns.
Amidst rebuild hope, more patience needed from White Sox fans
Takeaways
Munetaka Murakami has been an extremely exciting addition to the White Sox so far, and it is natural to wonder about his long-term future considering he is only playing on a two-year contract. Ultimately, this may prove to be a very wise risk taken by Murakami — not only is he able to potentially prove himself against MLB pitching in a lower-pressure environment, but he also avoids needing to find a new contract during a potential 2026-2027 lockout.
The shorter contract term is by design, of course, even if it limits upside for the White Sox. But for White Sox fans who are hoping for Murakami to become a long-term staple in Chicago, the biggest factor will be just how productive he is at the plate.
As silly as it may sound, fans who are more concerned with Murakami’s future home than 2026 wins and losses should want him to be a good-to-great, but not quite elite hitter. The White Sox are in a terrific position to support a larger contract in 2028 and beyond, but if Murakami ends up being a MVP-level hitter, it would be difficult to see him staying in Chicago. A good-to-great (120-130 wRC+) version of Murakami — even if this means he would be in the $25-30 million per year range — may be the best possible outcome here, as he would be good enough to be worth keeping long-term, but not so good that he prices himself out of town.
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Featured Photo: Kamil Krzaczynski / Imagn Images
