The Chicago White Sox will begin 2026 American League postseason baseball with the Wild Card Series tonight against the Houston Astros. The Astros are, of course, a familiar playoff opponent for White Sox fans, but things have certainly changed since 2021. Below are my general thoughts on how the series may play out and the key factors.
You should be afraid of Yordan Alvarez
Yordan Alvarez is the likely 2026 AL MVP. He hit a career-high 42 home runs while hitting a career-high .316, getting on base at a career-high .432 rate, compiling a 1.033 OPS and 181 wRC+ (those last two actually are not career highs). Now in his eighth season, Alvarez has firmly established himself in the upper echelon of hitters. Since his debut in 2019, only Aaron Judge has performed better at the plate. At minimum, Alvarez is a member of the “Mount Rushmore” of current hitters along with Aaron Judge, Juan Soto, and (probably) Shohei Ohtani.
Interestingly, Alvarez hit .200/.448/.250 (.698 OPS) against the White Sox this year in 29 plate appearances. Small sample aside, this was his worst showing against any American League team other than the Detroit Tigers. If someone told Will Venable that they could guarantee roughly this exact batting line from Alvarez this week, Venable would accept without hesitation.
The .448 OBP against the White Sox is very good, of course, and is more impressive considering he only struck out six times (against eight walks). But what is more impressive from the White Sox point of view is that Alvarez hit zero home runs against Chicago.
Given that he still got on base in almost half of his plate appearances, it may be fair to assume that the White Sox intentionally planned to pitch around Alvarez, figuring that walks would be less painful than home runs or doubles.
Will Venable should use openers and hunt matchups aggressively
Alvarez has an otherworldly 1.113 OPS against right-handed pitchers, but a merely great .825 OPS against left-handed pitchers. For a White Sox team with Sean Newcomb, Hagen Smith, Bryan Hudson, Noah Schultz, and potentially Anthony Kay available out of the bullpen, Will Venable will likely ensure that Alvarez is facing a left-handed pitcher as frequently as possible.
But there’s more – despite being right-handed hitters, Jeremy Peña and Isaac Paredes also have fared better against right-handed pitching this year. Peña and Paredes usually hit near Alvarez toward the top of the Astros’ batting order. Peña has a .836 OPS against right-handed pitchers and a .690 OPS against left-handers; Paredes has a .815 OPS against right-handers and a .779 OPS against left-handers (It is worth noting that this deviates from their career norms).
Will Venable usually gravitates toward handedness rather than pure platoon splits, meaning if an opposing hitter is left-handed, Venable will prefer to use a left-handed pitcher even if he has reverse splits. In the playoffs, Venable should consider Peña and Paredes as functionally left-handed hitters, because this is how they have performed in 2026. This also helps guarantee that Yordan Alvarez faces a left-handed pitcher.
Thus, Venable should aggressively use openers in this series and pull right-handed pitchers if Yordan Alvarez is batting and the leverage/game situation dictate a pitching change. Managers using openers is kind of like football coaches going for it on fourth downs: when it works, nobody really says anything after ~30 seconds, but when it fails, it becomes a popular talking point.
Public perception be damned, this Astros lineup should be attacked by openers. Hagen Smith appears to be doing so tonight. Even if Sean Burke pitches tomorrow, he should follow an opener like Noah Schultz (or even Smith again, if he pitches just one inning tonight).
Ok, but you really should be even more afraid of Yordan Alvarez
The above strategy may be optimal, but Alvarez is still a very good hitter against left-handed pitching. One cannot assume he will have a poor series solely because he faces lefties.
And that is fine. I have already seen a decent number of White Sox fans openly hoping to give Alvarez the Barry Bonds treatment, whether by intentionally walking him every plate appearance, or “unintentionally intentionally walking” him, which is when a pitcher throws a bunch of non-competitive pitches just in case an anxious hitter expands his zone. In many cases, this would also be fine with me.
Alvarez was the best hitter in baseball this year by a wide margin. The rest of the Astros lineup, while solid, is far less threatening.
The (other) keys to the series
Aside from Alvarez, there are three major factors that will determine whether the White Sox win the series:
- Will the starting (or bulk) pitching come through?
- Can the White Sox produce with RISP?
- How early in games will Venable empty his bench for platoon advantages?
It is widely known that the White Sox do not have a reliable or playoff-caliber starting pitching staff. Sean Burke had a very good season and should either start or serve as the bulk reliever in tomorrow’s game (or a potential Game 3). Davis Martin had a very up-and-down season, but since he did not crack 30 pitches on Saturday, he may be available (with a short leash) sooner than people think. Anthony Kay also had an inconsistent year, and he threw five innings on Sunday. He may be limited to a relief role in this series.
Erick Fedde and David Sandlin may be options to cover innings tonight. Fedde’s surface level numbers were impressive this year, but much of his success came while surrendering hard contact and without missing bats. He does not match up well against the Astros lineup, and did not have a very encouraging outing against them earlier this season (4.1 IP, 3 ER). If Fedde is used in this series, he should not be relied on to pitch a second time through the order.
Sandlin has arguably the most impressive stuff out of any of these pitchers, but is a rookie that has had high highs and very low lows. Like Fedde, if he is used in this series, the leash should be short.
All things considered, if the White Sox do win this series, chances are that at least two of these pitchers performed better than expected.
The White Sox were actually the eleventh-best team in baseball by wRC+ in hitting with runners in scoring position, but they were ranked 23rd by batting average. Anecdotally, it has felt that during the final stretch of the season, the White Sox have struggled to collect hits with RISP, but that is not fully supported by data.
The White Sox have the highest batting average with RISP since September 15, thirteenth-highest since September 7, etc. The problem was the period between September 8-13, a period in which the White Sox went 1-5 against the Pirates and Cardinals. The White Sox hit .122 with RISP that week, which was the worst mark in baseball. They even had the fifth-most plate appearances with RISP in the league that week.
During that stretch, and perhaps at some moments after, it has felt (maybe unfairly) that the White Sox can get on base at will, but simply cannot drive runners in. In the playoffs, this would be magnified even further.
If the Astros hang on to win a close game or two where the White Sox squandered an opportunity with a runner on third and nobody out, for example, no White Sox fan would be surprised. That the team gets on base so frequently is an undeniable positive, but in the playoffs, the pressure on the following hitters to drive in runs will only increase.
One of Will Venable’s best qualities as White Sox manager in 2026 was the level to which he got the most out of his hitters’ platoon splits. By leveraging the Benintendi-Grichuk platoon to perfection, he got a 114 wRC+ out of a designated hitter spot that looked mediocre at best on paper before the season.
But Venable is not afraid to make changes early in games. If it’s the fourth inning, the bases are loaded, and a lefty is brought in to face Andrew Benintendi, chances are Venable will pinch hit Randal Grichuk. This is often a smart move, but the Astros are treating tonight’s game as a bullpen game.
Emptying the bench early for a platoon advantage could backfire if the pinch hitters do not come through right away. Brenton Doyle and Luisangel Acuña have value, but perhaps not while hitting for themselves against high-leverage right-handed relievers late in games. On the bright side, the Astros’ best reliever, Josh Hader, throws left-handed, but this would only be a positive if Venable has not already turned to his best right-handed hitting options.
This is more of an art than a science, but Venable will need to try and maximize the amount of plate appearances that hitters like Sam Antonacci and Tristan Peters receive against right-handed pitchers without risking pulling them too early when the Astros inevitably bring a right-handed pitcher back into the game.
The Astros are well aware of the White Sox proclivity to pinch hit, and will likely alternate handedness of relievers as much as possible to neutralize it. Houston has a plethora of options out of the bullpen, and many are not household names. For instance, White Sox fans may remember Miguel Ullola as the pitcher who gave up two home runs and three runs total in an inning of a 12-3 White Sox victory in July. But he has allowed just one run in 11.2 innings since then, most of those innings coming in the last two weeks.
Learning from the semi-recent past
There are many reasons why the White Sox were eliminated from the 2020 and 2021 playoffs, and the 2026 team seems far different from those. However, the reasons those teams lost are still relevant, because they are normal issues in playoff baseball (especially for inexperienced teams).
In 2020, the White Sox suffered from bad defense in the playoffs. Most salient to fans is probably the poor pitching, especially out of the bullpen and in the decisive game of the series against the Athletics. The White Sox essentially emptied the bullpen, but several of the team’s young relievers struggled mightily to find the strike zone.
In 2021, the White Sox fell to the Astros for similar reasons. Pitchers did not execute well enough in clutch/RISP situations, and defensive lapses directly led to runs scored (for example, Leury Garcia’s misplay in right field in Game 2 was not technically an error, but it was a play that should have been made and basically sealed the game for the Astros). And unlike the 2020 playoffs, even though the White Sox outhit the Astros in the series, they were still outscored by 13 runs (because they did not have enough extra-base hits and walks).
Again, the 2026 team is different, but none of those reasons for prior losses are particularly surprising for what was also a fairly young and inexperienced group. The White Sox will likely use 5+ pitchers in these games, so it will be imperative that there is no weak link of the group who uncharacteristically struggles to throw strikes. And especially in a road environment, the fielders need to at least make the routine plays. Giving the Astros four outs in an inning is never a good idea.
Baseball playoffs are just variance, but…
Objectively, the 2026 White Sox are a better team than the Astros. The gap is narrow, but it’s there nonetheless. However, the Astros played better than the White Sox in both of their series over the summer.
I am a smart enough baseball fan to know that the winners and losers in the playoffs are largely just products of variance, and that the sample is way too small to truly determine the better team. This does not make the games any less exciting or important, but it is why I try to avoid overanalyzing the results of such short series.
Nevertheless, I am a jaded enough White Sox fan to have a hard time saying that they “should” beat the Astros in a road playoff series. Even if they successfully navigate Alvarez, the overall handedness chess match, and get good enough pitching, they will still need to come through with RISP, play solid defense, etc. This team is certainly capable of all of these things, but the matchup with the Astros is not ideal. For example, I would feel better if this series was against Cleveland or even Tampa Bay — both are better than the Astros, but the White Sox match up better against them in my opinion.
So while I feel that all of the above factors give the Astros a slight edge over the White Sox, it is still true that the White Sox have been the better team, and that deserves some consideration as well. Maybe you shouldn’t listen to me anyway… I’m just some guy who thought this team would win 68 games this season.
Make sure to check out our podcast episode that previews this series as well!
Follow us @SoxOn35th for more throughout the postseason!
Featured Image: Chicago White Sox / Instagram
