In 1948, the Boston Braves embraced the infamous “Spahn and Sain and pray for rain” motto. Today, with visions of playoff baseball ahead, the White Sox are barreling towards: “Martin or Burke and let the ‘pen work.” How exactly did we get here?
Earlier this January, I wrote an article explaining why Davis Martin and Sean Burke should feel pressure to remain in the starting rotation lest they seriously up their game. I think they might have heard me.
Up their game they have, as to date this season Burke (7-4) sits at a 3.20 ERA/3.57 FIP and Martin (9-5) boasts a 3.31 ERA/3.06 FIP. The duo has anchored the rotation, with both notching at least 106 innings to date while no other Sox pitcher is in triple digits.
There was nothing in that article that I’d like to take back—having a short leash with both made all the sense in the world between their career stats and the Sox’s young pitching talent. Yet, I would like to apologize to Burke directly, as I counted him out last summer in no uncertain terms. On August 18, when he was optioned to Triple-A, I tweeted that “…his ceiling has always been barely a #5 starter.”
In my defense, Burke’s stats were never impressive in the minor leagues. But his curveball and slider were often graded as plus offerings, and the front office in Chicago clearly saw enough to warrant a call-up. I was flat-out wrong, so please forgive me, Sean!
Yet Burke proving his ceiling is much higher than fringe starter is no common occurrence, and Martin’s ascension falls into the same bucket. They may not be doing the impossible, but the pair are doing the highly improbable.
Davis Martin
Consider where Martin was at the start of this past offseason. He’d completed 256.0 IP across three major league campaigns and boasted an ERA around 4.30, with similar advanced stats. He was nearing 29 years old and a mediocre starting pitcher through-and-through.
Moreover, Martin was drafted in the 14th round and never once appeared in the White Sox Top 30 prospect list on MLB Pipeline. So to turn things around with that track record, at that age, with a 2023 Tommy John surgery in the mix too, is incredible.
This article won’t focus on diving into the “how” of these transformations, but if you’re interested, this informative MLB.com piece details the pitch mix changes that are primarily responsible.
Sean Burke
Back to Burke, his progression is striking on its own accord. I mentioned above that his minor league stats were never encouraging, but I’m not sure Sox fans understand just how uninspiring they were. Following his short 2021 professional debut, here’s what Burke posted over the following farm seasons:
- 2022: 4.75 ERA/4.34 FIP
- 2023 (36.2 IP, dealt with shoulder injury): 7.61 ERA/7.20 FIP
- 2024: 4.77 ERA/5.01 FIP
- 2025: (12.2 IP before call-up): 7.82 ERA/5.39 FIP
His strikeout rates were often eye-catching, but when’s the last time an MLB pitching prospect put up four straight years of these numbers and wound up being a stellar arm in the big leagues? I’m sure there are a few strikeout-centric relievers who went that path, but this is very rare for a starter.
Even Burke’s 4.22 ERA with Chicago last year was suspect, as the xERA and FIP were 4.93 and 4.92, respectively. So again, to be this improved is rather jaw-dropping given the entire career arc.
Interestingly enough, Burke can credit similar changes to Martin. Yes, superior command is a huge part of things, but mixing in a cutter and sinker for significantly more of his fastballs is a major factor.
There you have it—two vastly refined starting pitchers that deserve an ever bigger tip of the cap than many may think. White Sox fans, during this magical season with electricity up and down the young lineup, don’t underappreciate this pair.
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